US: Conservatives On Budget Cmte Vote Down 'Big Beautiful' GOP Tax/Spending Bill

• RES 4: 113-04   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-12   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
• RES 2: 111-25   50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg   
• RES 1: 111-09+ High Apr 16
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-04+ @ 16:50 BST Apr 16 
• SUP 1: 110-15+/109-08   Low Apr 14 / 11 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 108-21   Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support 

Treasury futures traded higher this week. The climb has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and the contract is retracing the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 11. The next resistance to watch is 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.  

• USD/CAD: Apr22 C$1.4315($1.0bln), C$1.4400($1.2bln)

• GBP/USD's early outperformance has reversed through the London close, with the pair back to flat having traded with gains of as much as ~65 pips at the NY crossover.
• The 15-minute candle chart shows the drift off highs today has put price through the uptrendline support drawn off the Apr09 low, which had helped dictate the early upside to 1.3292.
• Further slippage toward 1.3163 would mark the 23.6% retracement of the Trump U-turn rally - and would still leave the pair over 3% higher vs the pullback low.
• GBP rallied alongside equities and risk following the 90-day tariff reprieve headlines, however GBP has not seen support from the late rally in the FTSE-100 today, which added over 1% off the day's lows on a sharp 50 point rally in the last hour of trade.
• EUR/GBP strength off lows today partially snaps the sharp weakness seen off the April high - confirming the latest pullback in cross as corrective. A resumption of gains would open 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection point.