US: Conservatives On Budget Cmte Vote Down 'Big Beautiful' GOP Tax/Spending Bill
May-16 16:05
The House Budget Committee has voted 16-21 on the Republican 'One Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill, with five hardline Republican conservatives joining Democrats to vote against advancing the package.
- The failed vote means that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) must decide whether there is a pathway to holding a second vote today. Arrington noted at the end of the hearing: "I do not anticipate us coming back today."
- Returning for a second vote today is unlikely as the conservative opposition appears dug in, without major revisions to the bill. Johnson will likely engage in further negotiations over the weekend to offer incentives to conservatives to endorse the bill. There are roadblocks ahead for Johnson as any concessions made to conservatives are likely to inflame a separate standoff with blue-state Republicans over the cap on State and Local (SALT) tax deductions.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Retracement Mode
Apr-16 15:52
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-12 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-25 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 111-09+ High Apr 16
- PRICE: 111-04+ @ 16:50 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 110-15+/109-08 Low Apr 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
Treasury futures traded higher this week. The climb has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and the contract is retracing the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 11. The next resistance to watch is 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Apr-16 15:51
- USD/CAD: Apr22 C$1.4315($1.0bln), C$1.4400($1.2bln)
GBP: Fails to Benefit From Late FTSE Rally
Apr-16 15:46
- GBP/USD's early outperformance has reversed through the London close, with the pair back to flat having traded with gains of as much as ~65 pips at the NY crossover.
- The 15-minute candle chart shows the drift off highs today has put price through the uptrendline support drawn off the Apr09 low, which had helped dictate the early upside to 1.3292.
- Further slippage toward 1.3163 would mark the 23.6% retracement of the Trump U-turn rally - and would still leave the pair over 3% higher vs the pullback low.
- GBP rallied alongside equities and risk following the 90-day tariff reprieve headlines, however GBP has not seen support from the late rally in the FTSE-100 today, which added over 1% off the day's lows on a sharp 50 point rally in the last hour of trade.
- EUR/GBP strength off lows today partially snaps the sharp weakness seen off the April high - confirming the latest pullback in cross as corrective. A resumption of gains would open 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection point.
