SWITZERLAND DATA: Consensus For August CPI Print Unevenly Distributed
Consensus to tomorrow's print is a bit unevenly distributed, with 8 estimates for the median 0.2%, 5 estimates looking for a higher 0.3% print, only one analyst predicting 0.1% Y/Y, but two analysts looking for a low 0.0% print according to Bloomberg data.
- UBS sees 0.1% Y/Y, commenting "We expect our definition of core inflation (headline excluding energy and food) to fall by 0.3pp to 0.5% y/y, predominantly due to a 1pp drop in rents inflation (to 1.6% y/y) reflecting the pass-through of the March reference rate cut. Outside of core, we expect energy inflation to rise 0.6pp to -7.5% y/y, while food inflation is expected to go up 0.4pp to -0.2% y/y."
From a domestic perspective, we'd argue tomorrow's Swiss CPI print would need a significant surprise to meaningfully shift SNB expectations towards further easing. Meanwhile, unemployment rate data is unlikely to move the needle for the CHF.
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