THAILAND: Confidence Weakens Further Implying Softer Q2 Consumption

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 149.34/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 147.35 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point   
• PRICE: 143.13 @ 06:45 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 142.07 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
• SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bearish and last Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 147.35.

Germany, Finland, Greece and France are all due to hold auctions this week. There is also the potential for Austrian, Belgian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks, although the timing of these are more uncertain than usual given the recent market volatility. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E22.8bln, down from E35.8bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042).
• Also today, Finland will hold a conventional auction to sell a combined E1.5bln of the 0.125% Sep-31 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000507231) and the 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294).
• Tomorrow, Greece will hold a GGB auction. The details will be announced today.
• Germany will return to the market tomorrow to hold a 30-year Bund auction to issue E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).

The ESM, Portugal and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E16.2bln, down from E30.8bln last week.

• Today, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Oct 23, 2025 bills.
• Tomorrow, Portugal will sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 11-month Mar 20, 2026 BT.
• Finally tomorrow, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Jul 4, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Oct 3, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Apr 10, 2026 EU-bill.