US DATA: Composite MBA Applications Dip As Swap Spread Re-Widens A Touch

• On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3219.4, the 20-day EMA.
• In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery that started on Apr 9 appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open; $58.29, the Apr 10 low, and $53.72, the 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $65.73, the 50-day EMA.

• Treasuries are modestly lower in a paring of the rally seen in the second half of last week, amidst mixed equity performance overnight.
• Today’s focus will likely be on US policy headlines following President Trump’s attendance of Pope Francis’ funeral – both on trade deals and a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire – before attention turns to the Treasury’s quarterly borrowing estimates at 1500ET (MNI Refunding Preview here).
• US Tsy Sec Bessent said on Sunday that he did now know if Trump had spoken to China President Xi, calling into doubt Trump’s suggestion last week that Xi had called him. Bessent said he believed there was a "path" to negotiations with China whilst calling Trump's tariff policy approach "strategic uncertainty".
• This week also sees a heavy earnings calendar, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple, although today’s slate is light.
• Cash yields are 2-4bp higher on the day, with increases led by 7s.
• 10Y yields bottomed out at 4.231% overnight for lows prior to the Apr 9 90-day tariff ‘pause’, currently at 4.272%.   
• TYM5 trades at 111-13+ (-03) having eased back from late Fri/overnight highs of 111-22+, on thin cumulative volumes of 225k.
• Those latest gains cleared Wednesday’s 111-18+ but stopped short of testing resistance at 111-25 (50% retrace of Apr 7-11 bear leg). Clearance of the latter would undermine a bearish theme and open 112-12 (61.8% retrace).
• Data: Dallas Fed mfg Apr (1030ET)
• US Tsy Quarterly borrowing estimates (1500ET, before full QRA on Wed at 0830ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)

XCA (20th Mar) vs (20th June) 16p spread, bought the March for 0.76 in 5k.