COMMODITIES: Gold Remains in Consolidation Mode Close to Recent Highs
WTI futures remain in a bearish condition and last week’s impulsive sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and opens $66.66, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $72.67, the 20-day EMA. Gold is in consolidation mode and remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged and the primary direction remains up. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has recently been pierced. The next firm support to watch is $2448.3, the 50-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
- WTI Crude down $0.55 or -0.8% at $68.21
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.69% at $2.155
- Gold spot down $3.72 or -0.15% at $2501.73
- Copper down $2.15 or -0.52% at $412.45
- Silver up $0.01 or +0.03% at $28.3455
- Platinum up $0.75 or +0.08% at $943.32
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USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 1: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5
- PRICE: 1.3729 @ 16:36 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 1.3731/18 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
- SUP 3: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. A key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for 1.3977, the Oct 13 ‘22 high. Near-term, the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. A move lower appears to be a correction and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3731, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 1.3657, the Jul 17 low.
US TSYS: Curves Twist Flatter, Rate Cuts Cool As Recession Concerns Ease
- Treasuries are mostly firmer after the bell, curves flatter (2s10s -5.920 at -11.155) with the short end underperforming on a relatively quiet end to a hectic week with no scheduled data, Fed speak or Tsy supply Friday.
- Treasury futures spiked higher early in the week as recession concerns climbed following last Friday's employment data, 10Y futures surge to 115-03.5 high Monday, 10Y yield fall to 3.6653% low.
- Markets spent the rest of the week scaling back support as recession cares cooled.
- Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently trade +8 at 112-29, vs. 112-21, well below technical resistance at 114-03/115-03+ (High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger).
- Projected rate cut pricing into year end were well off Monday's highs (*): Sep'24 cumulative -39.4bp (-54.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -70.5bp (-95.9bp), Dec'24 -102.2bp (-128.1bp).
- Focus on next week's PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home sales data and UofM inflation expectations.
EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 167.44 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 164.75 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1
- RES 1: 161.59 High Aug 2
- PRICE: 160.03 @ 16:31 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 157.30 / 154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5
- SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 3: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23
EURJPY traded sharply lower Monday marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle, before recovering from the session low. The move down opens the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross remains in an extreme oversold position. A stronger recovery would allow this to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 161.59, the Aug 2 high.
