EU: Commission Unveiling Of MFF To EU Parliament Pushed To At Least 14:00CET
Siefried Muresan, a Romanian MEP and vice-president of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) group posts on X: "The European Commission was supposed to present the draft budget for the European Union for 2028 - 2034 this afternoon at 12:30 to the European Parliament. This meeting is now delayed until at least 14:00 [CET, 0800ET, 13:00BST] and we have still not received any official proposal to analyse. Given the importance of this file, this form of inter institutional cooperation is unsatisfactory. This important file needs to be treated with attention, be well prepared, in an inclusive and transparent manner."
- The press conference involving Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin was due to take place around 17:00CET (11:00ET, 16:00BST), but there is the prospect that this is also pushed back due to the delay to Serafin's session with the European Parliament's budget committee. For more info see "EU: Commission To Unveil Multi-Trillion Euro Long-Term Budget Proposal ~17:00CET", 10:23BST.
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STIR: Handelsblatt Tariff Report Consistent With ECB Baseline Assumptions
Little net reaction in front-end ECB-implied rates to the latest report from Handelsblatt, which says the EC is prepared to accept a flat 10% US tariff rate under certain conditions. Such an outcome would be broadly in line with the baseline tariff assumptions in the ECB’s June projections. These projections were also conditioned on a market curve that had another 25bp cut priced in - consistent with current OIS market pricing.
- From the June projections: “The baseline assumes…US tariffs for goods imports would increase from almost zero by 10 percentage points for all countries – except China, for which these would increase by about 20 percentage points to an effective tariff rate of approximately 40% (when measured for both goods and services). Additionally, it is assumed that the EU does not retaliate, while China retaliates symmetrically”.
- In an interview with Reuters released this morning, VP de Guindos noted that “The final outcome in trade negotiations is by far the most relevant factor of uncertainty that we considered in our projections, which are the basis for our monetary policy decisions”.
EQUITIES: Option Expiries in Notional Term
Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term for Friday:
- SPX: $3.41bn vs $3.31T last Wednesday.
- NDX: $121.13bn vs $117.51bn.
- Amazon: $20.72bn vs $19.66bn.
- Apple: $24.99bn vs $24.26bn.
- SX5E: €325.63bn vs €328.50bn.
- SX7E: €21.19bn vs €21.16bn.
- DAX: €85.30bn vs €83.88bn.
- UKX: £26.71bn vs £26.25bn.
Adding:
- CAC: €4.51bn.
- Lloyds: £3.05bn.
AUD: FX Exchange traded Option
FX Exchange traded Option, covers the July and August RBA meeting, looking for AUD strength:
- AUDUSD (5th Sep) b65.50c, bought for 1.32 in 1.2k.
