EU: Commission To Unveil Multi-Trillion Euro Long-Term Budget Proposal ~17:00CET

Jul-16 09:23

At around 17:00CET (11:00ET, 16:00BST), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin are set to hold a press conference (live stream here) to unveil Commission proposals for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The MFF is the long-term EU budget spanning 2028 to 2034. Politico reported late on 15 July that the central budget figure being targeted by the Commission is EUR1.717 trillion, which "would mean total spending would rise to 1.23 percent of gross national income for the seven years from 2028, compared with around 1.1 percent over the current period."

  • The College of Commissioners meet before the press conference to give final approval. Serafin will also appear before the European Parliament's budget committee at 12:30CET (06:30ET, 11:30BST).
  • The MFF process will continue over the next two years, and there is likely to be a significant amount of change from these initial proposals. EU Observer notes, "the parliament and member states will enter technical discussions and more intensive negotiations. But the specific figures and how funds will be allocated will only emerge at a later stage. Informal meetings among the commission, council, and MEPs may be used early on to align positions."
  • Initial expectations are that VdL will look to propose “new own resources”, i.e. new 'EU taxes' to raise revenues. Such a proposal will prove controversial, with Sweden's European Affairs Minister Jessica Rosencrantz saying, “We don’t see a need for new own resources and definitely not European taxes."

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Equity Roll View

Jun-16 09:18

JPM on US: 

  • They see the Rolls mostly trading rich vs Fair value, as such they are more tilted to the bearish side in the SPX, NDX, and RTY.
  • But they add that the US CPI this Week, the FOMC on the 18th June, as well spot moves, could dampen some of that View.

JPM on EU: 

  • While they don't see Positioning as long as it was during Q1, they anticipated some early Long Positions to be rolled early in the main European Indices.

STIR: Goldman Don't Expect ECB Pricing To React Much To Current Risk Backdrop

Jun-16 09:14

Goldman Sachs write “near-term risks swirl both on trade and geopolitics, but ‘25 ECB pricing remains little changed over the last week. We continue to expect the ECB to be close to the end of the cutting cycle with one more cut in September, depending on the incoming data flow”.

  • They note that “prospects for better growth in coming years from German fiscal expansion have received a modest boost from resilient sentiment, with manufacturing and constructing expectations holding up better than our economists expected”.
  • Goldman continue to think this “will keep terminal rate pricing at current or higher levels despite the near-term risks”.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Ratio Put Spread

Jun-16 09:04

ERH6 98.5625/98.1875ps 1x2, sold at 11.25 down to 10.50 in 21.6k.