TURKEY: Commerzbank Expects Further TRY Weakness, Despite A Rise In Inflows
Jul-18 09:54
- Commerzbank believes that continued unfavourable balance of payments dynamics and a negative fundamental backdrop for the currency means that the lira is likely to keep depreciating in line with recent trend, even with some improvement in gross inflows.
- They say that the decline in international reserves again in June underlines persistent fragility in the country’s external financing, despite a rebound in primary issuance which boosted portfolio and banking inflows in May. Net reserves excluding swaps fell by 9.5% in June to their lowest since August 2024.
- The June decline suggests that capital flows remain volatile following the political turbulence of March-April. The financial account had enjoyed a marked improvement during May, but this was not enough to reverse the structural reserve drain last month, not helped by rising energy prices.
- Meanwhile, external borrowing by the private sector picked up in May too. Long-term debt makes up most of the increase, but short-term credit by non-financial firms also jumped significantly. The trend reflects both reduced domestic funding options and persistent FX liquidity demand.
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MIDEAST: Iran's Supreme Leader to Address Nation Shortly
Jun-18 09:53
"IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI TELEVISED MESSAGE TO BE AIRED SHORTLY - ISNA" - RTRS
- In terms of timings for Khamenei's appearance, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that “The Supreme Leader's televised message to the Iranian nation will be broadcast in a few minutes,” without further details.
EQUITIES: Options size for Triple Witching Friday
Jun-18 09:49
Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term, some have increased. Gamma will provide some Volatility at and post Expiry on Friday.
US:
- SPX: $3.52T vs $3.41T Monday.
- NDX: $125.27bn vs $121.13bn.
- Amazon: $21.76bn vs $20.72bn.
- Apple: $26.27bn vs $24.99bn.
EU:
- SX5E: €331.78bn vs €325.63bn.
- SX7E: €21.17bn vs €21.19bn.
- DAX: €85.67bn vs €85.30bn.
- CAC: €4.36bn vs €4.51bn.
- UKX: £26.71bn vs £26.25bn.
- Lloyds: £3.06bn vs £3.05bn.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In S&P E-Minis Points North
Jun-18 09:46
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. For now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6003.83, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5896.83. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The latest pullback has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5298.64. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would signal a short-term top and highlight scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, 38.2% of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg. Initial resistance to watch is 5355.88, the 20-day EMA.
