EU FINANCIALS: Commerzbank: 3Q25 Results Headlines
Nov-06 07:43
(CMZB; A1/A/NR)
Credit neutral. Numbers in-line. 2025 NII guidance raised, net result guidance maintained. 'Very positive' view on 2026. Slightly higher tax in Q3 reduces 'net result' below expectations, not expected to continue. CET1 14.7%.
- Total Revenue €2,939mn vs est. €2,979mn (-2.6% QoQ / 7.5% YoY)
- Interest Income €2,044mn vs est. €2,026mn (-0.9% QoQ / -0.1% YoY)
- Non-Interest Expenses €1,624mn vs est. €1,594mn (0.5% QoQ / 6.2% YoY)
- Operating Income €1,047mn vs est. €1,057mn (-10.4% QoQ / 18.2% YoY)
- Loan Loss Provisions €215mn vs est. €212mn (21.5% QoQ / -15.7% YoY)
- Net Income €591mn vs est. €627mn (27.9% QoQ / -7.9% YoY)
- Private & Small Business Customers
- Net Revenue €1,710mn vs est. €1,707mn (-0.1% QoQ / 11.8% YoY)
- Corporate Clients
- Net Revenue €1,202mn vs est. €1,179mn (2.8% QoQ / 7.2% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio 14.7% vs est. 14.6%
- NPL/Total Loans (bps) 220.1 vs est. 189.9
- Cost of Risk (bps) 13.0 vs est. 10.4
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FRANCE DATA: Export Growth Recovering But Momentum Weak
Oct-07 07:37
The French trade deficit was E5.53bln in August, down from E5.74bln in July (revised from E5.56bln initial) and a year-to-date high of E7.42bln in February. Assuming unchanged nominal GDP growth of ~0.5% Q/Q in Q3, this implies a steady goods trade deficit of around 2.7% GDP.
- Imports fell 0.4% M/M for the second consecutive month, a sign of continued weakness in domestic demand against a backdrop of ongoing political/fiscal/economic uncertainty. However, Y/Y import growth continues to slowly recover from the 2023 lows, trending back toward pre-covid growth rates.
- Total exports fell 0.1% M/M in August, after two solid months of 3.5% and 1.7% growth in June and July. Like imports, a recovery in annual export growth from the 2023 lows is intact, though momentum is lacking. This may reflect the direct impact of US tariffs, even with trade policy uncertainty having declined since the EU-US trade agreement was struck in August. Although exports to the US rose 4.9% M/M in August, 3m/3m and Y/Y 3mma growth remains negative.
- September’s PMI round was in fitting with this theme:
- Manufacturing PMI: “Exports were also a drag on overall orders during the latest survey period, with companies mentioning US tariffs and generally sluggish market conditions as reasons for lower overseas demand.”
- Services PMI: “French service providers closed out the third quarter with another decline in new business from abroad. Albeit softer than August's year-to-date record, the contraction remained solid”.
BUNDS: Block trade
Oct-07 07:34
Bund Block trade, suggest buyer:
- RXZ5 3k at 128.37.
EGBs are lifted off their lows, Bobl is bought in 5k cumulative Volumes, BTP 1.7k and OAT 1k.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: More Call Condor Buyer
Oct-07 07:31
- ERM6 98.37/98.50/98.75/98.87c condor, bought for 1 in 5k.
This was also bought Yesterday in 14k.
