ASIA: Coming up in the Asian session on Monday
| 0115GMT | 0915HKT | 1115AEST | China July 1 & 5yr LPR |
| 0700GMT | 1500HKT | 1700AEST | Malaysia July Foreign Reserves |
| 0800GMT | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan June Unemployment Rate |
| 0800GMT | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan June Export Orders |
| 0830GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEST | Hong Kong June CPI Composite |
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USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
- PRICE: 1.3711 @ 16:42 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 1.3675 Low June 21
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD has traded lower this week and has pierced the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of these supports would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the medium-term resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
US TSYS: Off Post-Flash PMI Lows, Triple Witching Ahead
- Treasuries are mildly weaker - back near early overnight levels following mixed global PMI levels. Treasuries extended support after soft French, German and Eurozone composite flash PMIs during early London hours -- but gapped lower after slightly higher than expected US flash PMIs in Mfg (51.7 vs. 51.0 est), Services (55.1 vs. 54.0) and Composite (54.6 vs. 53.5 est).
- Little reaction to a dip in May Existing Home Sales to 4.11m (cons 4.10m) after an unrevised 4.14m.
- Session lows were marked at midmorning (Sep'24 10Y at 110-11.5) and spent the rest of the session see-sawing off lows to 110-16.5 (-1), 10Y yield -.0098 at 4.2496%.
- Projected rate cut pricing remains steady to mildly lower vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.6bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.8bp), Dec'24 -46.7bp (-47.2bp).
- Cross asset focus on equity market triple witching expiration of quarterly stock options, index futures and index options and Nvidia swapping ETF weighting with Apple late Friday.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading In A Range
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6633 @ 16:41 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
- SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
AUDUSD continues to trade within its range. The recent sideways move has defined key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent key short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break below 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.
