ASIA: Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Thursday
| 2250GMT | 0650HKT | 0950AEDT | Japan June Investor Bond/Stocks Buys |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia May Trade Balance |
| 0135GMT | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand To Sell 31, 34, 40 (L), 41 Bonds |
| 0235GMT | 1035HKT | 1335AEDT | Japan to Sell 30-Year Bonds |
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3644 @ 17:52 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD has pulled back from last week’s high. A bull trend remains intact and the move down is deemed corrective. Key supports at 1.3646, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, remain intact. They have been pierced, however, a clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6695/6714 High Jun 3 / 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6673 @ 17:51 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 0.6589 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
- SUP 3: 0.6465 Low May 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22
A bull cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains intact and recent short-term weakness appears to have been a correction. A key support to watch lies at 0.6589, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would pave the way for 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 0.6714, May 16 high.
US TSYS: Soft ISM Mfg Rekindles Late Year Rate Cut Pricing, Fed in Blackout
- Treasury futures continue to extend gains after latest flash ISM data comes out lower than expected: ISM Manufacturing (48.7 vs. 49.6 est), Prices Paid (57.0 vs. 59.5 est); New Orders falls to 45.4 vs. 49.1 prior, while Employment climbs to 51.1 vs. 48.6 prior.
- Meanwhile, the employment component printed in expansionary territory for the first time since September 2023 at 51.1. For the purposes of this Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, the uptick could spur some upside reconsiderations for existing forecasts., especially after the S&P manufacturing PMI also signaled stronger employment dynamics.
- Treasury futures gained slightly after the initial gap bid and drifted sideways through the close with Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures (TYU4) marking 109-19.5 (+26) high, pared bid to 109-16 last. Today's rally confirms a corrective bounce is underway, and signals potential for a continuation toward 109-28, the May 17 high, in the short-term.
- Late year rate cut projections continue to gain following this morning's data: June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -14% w/ cumulative at -3.8bp at 5.293%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.2bp (-14.7bp pre-data), Nov'24 cumulative -25.3bp (-21.7bp pre-data), Dec'24 -40.6bp (-35.5bp pre-data).
- Tuesday Data Calendar: Jolts, Factory, Durable Goods Orders
