ASIA: Coming Up In Friday's Asia Pac Session

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4066 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3914 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3781 @ 17:02 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.3760 Low May 2 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

Bearish conditions in USDCAD remain intact. A fresh cycle low last Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, first resistance to watch is 1.3914, the 20-day EMA. 

• Some consumer expectations point to a particularly bleak outlook for the labor market over the next year. A question in the U.Mich survey for instance has shown two months now at its weakest since 2008/09.
• However, for now, initial jobless claims remain in a well-defined range and are still close to levels associated with a tight labor market. The nearest sign of potentially some softening in re-hiring activity was the latest increase in continuing claims to a fresh high since late 2021 but it’s just one week of data and should be interpreted carefully with potential Easter distortions.
• The next few months of data are likely to be more revealing.