ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Monday

Barclays analysts now expect three Fed cuts in the remainder of the year, adding October to their pre-existing call for 25bp reductions in September and December. "Given the disappointing August employment report, we expect the FOMC to see more elevated downside risks to the employment side of the mandate." 

• As for a 50bp September cut, "we think that the FOMC will view [that] as sending too strong a signal that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, we think that participants such as Powell understand that the slower pace of payroll employment reflects at least, in part, slower labor supply, which does not translate into increased labor market slack."
• For 2026 they continue to expect 25bp cuts in March and June to 3.00-3.25%, but "we do not think the FOMC will be able to cut rates more than twice next year, as we think that activity will show some slight acceleration, with the economy adapting to the new tariff environment and fiscal policy providing some support, and the unemployment rate will revert down amid limited increase in labor supply."

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to make an announcement from the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to an Executive Order he signed earlier today that would rename the Department of Defense the Department of War. 

• The New York Times notes, "Jamal Greene, a professor at Columbia Law School, said that it was not clear that the president could make the change unilaterally. Acts of Congress established the Department of Defense and the title of secretary of defense, Professor Greene said, so it was unclear if Mr. Trump’s name change would take effect immediately."
• Politico reported this morning, “Beyond just getting Congress on board, actually changing the names of all of the Pentagon buildings, stationary, emblems, plaques, etc., will likely cost billions. But the new name is fitting with the administration’s push for a more aggressive, offensive military image globally.”
• The White House event will be Trump's first public remarks since today's soft-than-expected jobs report. The president has been relatively quiet on social media today, posting "Jerome “Too Late” Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s “Too Late!”", in an apparent reference to the jobs report. 

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3845 High Sep 04
• PRICE: 1.3836 @ 16:20 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. An extension higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. A break of this level would instead reinstate the recent bear theme and expose 1.3709, a Fibonacci retracement.