ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today

Oil prices had a mixed week driven by expectations on trade deals, Iran and forecasts for the outlook. On Friday they were higher as Iran’s foreign minister sounded less optimistic about an imminent deal with the US on its nuclear programme than another official earlier in the week. Meanwhile, an easing of sanctions on Russian fossil fuel is a long way off as it continues to bombard Ukraine despite the start of negotiations.

• WTI rose 1.4% to $62.49/bbl on Friday, close to the intraday high of $62.71, to be up 2.4% on the week and 7.4% in May to date. The downtrend remains intact and any rallies are seen as corrective. The bear trigger is at $54.67 and initial resistance at $63.46, 50-day EMA. The benchmark has started today 0.1% lower at $62.41.
• Brent was 1.2% higher at $65.33/bbl and 2.2% last week and 7.0% this week. It reached a high of $65.54 on Friday but still off Tuesday’s $66.81. It traded in a narrow range last week holding between initial resistance at $66.49, 50-day EMA, and $58.00, the bear trigger. Ongoing negotiations across the world mean that traders are hesitant to take on too much risk.
• The IEA continues to expect excess oil supply in 2025 and 2026, while the EIA said that it expects lower US output given current price levels. It estimates that a deal with Iran would increase global supply by 200-300kbd. The foreign minister noted on X that Iran was yet to receive an official US proposition and that the message has been “contradictory”, as cited by Bloomberg. 

• South Korea to Sell KRW1.25tn 10-Year Bonds
• Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn 91-Day Bonds
• South Korea to Sell KRW1.25tn 10-Year Bonds
• Thailand to Sell THB30bn 182-Days Bills
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059545)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059156)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060402)