ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea BoP Current Account Balance MAR |
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea BoP Goods Balance MAR |
| 2200GMT | 1100HKT | 1300AEDT | Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index APR |
| 0230GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Gross International Reserves |
| 2300GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Forward Contracts |
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ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 2200GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Unemployment SA MAR |
| 0200GMT | 1100HKT | 1300AEDT | South Korea Bank Lending to Households MAR |
| 0330GMT | 1230HKT | 1430AEDT | RBI Repurchase Rate |
| 0330GMT | 1230HKT | 1430AEDT | RBI Cash Reserve Ratio |
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia-Pac On Wednesday
2300GMT 0700HKT 0900AEDT South Korea Unemployment Rate Mar
0100GMT 0900HKT 1100AEDT Australia Sells $1bn 2028 Bonds
0110GMT 0910HKT 1110AEDT Japan BoJ Bond Purchase 10-25 yrs
0110GMT 0910HKT 1110AEDT Japan BoJ Bond Purchase 1-3 yrs
0110GMT 0910HKT 1110AEDT Japan BoJ Bond Purchase 5-10 yrs
0200GMT 1000HKT 1200AEDT NZ RBNZ Rate Decision
0500GMT 1300HKT 1500AEDT Japan Consumer Confidence Mar
0600GMT 1400HKT 1600AEDT Japan Machine Tool Orders Mar P
0615GMT 1415HKT 1615AEDT Japan BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks
NZD: NZDUSD - Can’t bounce ?
FX volatility is accelerating higher, the 2 main themes driving this are the dislocations in US yields with Treasuries moving from 3.87% to 4.30% in just 2 days. Secondly the break above 7.38/40 in USD/CNH could be the first sign of the PBOC signaling it is about to allow the currency to be devalued in response to the tariffs.
- The overnight range was 0.5521 - 0.5626, Asia opens near the lows once more as stocks fail to hold onto their gains and US yields have another leg higher.
- The RBNZ is expected to lower its key rate 25bp to 3.5% today. The market is starting to think they might need to do more as trade tensions threaten the economy.
- The break higher in USD/CNH is of profound importance, the Fix will be keenly watched today to get confirmation that the PBOC is willing to let the currency run higher.
- A run higher in USD/CNH will provide strong headwinds for both the AUD and NZD and increase the already heightened selling pressure.
- Technically the NZD continues to hold the 0.5500 support area, but price continues to trade heavy just above it. A break of this support could see the move lower accelerate.
- The CFTC data shows both leverage funds and Asset managers are running historically large short positions, if this level breaks expect these to be added to.
- On the day expect sellers to participate in any bounce back towards 0.5600/50. All eyes though will be watching the key 0.5500 area for signs it might give way.
NZDUSD
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
