EM LATAM CREDIT: Colombia: Presidential Election – Negative

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1627 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1587/91 20-day EMA / High Nov 7
• PRICE: 1.1547 @ 15:59 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD has recovered from its recent lows. The move higher, for now, appears corrective. A short-term recovery is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A late sell-off into the Monday close helped back up this view. Resistance to watch remains the 20-day EMA, at 1.1587. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1627. The trend remains bearish. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• ERM6 98.75/98.875 call spread paper paid 0.25 on +5K
• SFIZ5 96.20/96.10 put spread vs. 0NZ5 96.50/96.40 put spread, paper paid 0.25 on 4.5K (+SFIZ5, -0NZ5)
• SFIH6 96.60/96.65/96.70 call fly paper paid 0.5 on 3K
• SFIH6 96.25/35/65/75 call condor paper paid 5.75 on 5K
• SFIH6 96.45/96.75 call spread vs. 96.30 puts paper paid 1.5 on 3.3
• SFIJ6 96.70/80 call spread vs. 96.25/15 put spread paper paid 1.5 on 7.5K for the call spread
• 0NZ5 96.70/96.90 call spread (vs 62+) 22K given at 3.75

• WI rises slightly ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPK1) cut-off at 1300ET.
• 3Y WI is currently at 3.592%, 1.6bp cheap to last month's stop: drawing 3.576% high yield vs. 3.584% WI.