US NATGAS: Colombia Could Gut Gas Dependence Through Efficiencies: Ember
Dec-05 11:23
Colombia could reduce its dependence on imported gas by 2030 through industrial efficiency and residential electrification, according to an analysis by Transforma and Ember.
- By 2030, Colombia’s gas deficit will be 14,556 GBtu, when domestic gas production and import capacity will be insufficient to meet demand.
- The gas deficit will grow each year, hitting 3.9% in 2030 and 52% by 2039.
- Residential electrification and increased energy efficiency in industry could reduce gas demand by 21,545 GBTU in 2030.
- Industry comprises around 24% of Colombia’s gas demand, with almost half for refining and coal coking.
- Efficiencies in the industrial sector could cut gas consumption by over 14,000 GBtu – a 14% reduction in gas demand.
- Colombia’s natural gas reserves are failing to keep pace with domestic demand falling around 13% on the year in 2024. Reserves are forecast to last another 5.9 years at current production rates, the country’s National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) said.
- This decline appears inevitable due to a lack of hydrocarbon exploration. President Petro announced a ban on new exploiration projects in 2023.
- Commercialised production of natural gas fell more than 10% in September year-over-year to 814 mmcf/d, according to ANH, cited by Reuters.
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STIR: Fed Rates Steady Before Important Data Updates
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- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s modest decline in risk-off moves ahead of a more notable docket today with the October ADP and ISM Services reports plus any spillover to front rates from Treasury’s QRA at 0830ET.
- Dec FOMC pricing still holds nearly all of the hawkish adjustment seen after Powell noted a strongly divided committee around December cut prospects at Wednesday’s press conference.
- Cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 17bp Dec, 26bp Jan, 35bp Mar, 41.5bp Apr and 56bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are mostly 2 ticks higher on the day looking out to end-2027, with the terminal implied yield edging a little lower to 3.075% (H7) after Monday’s 3.115% highest close since August.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield
- Today sees a pause in scheduled Fedspeak before a heavy schedule tomorrow with Barr, Hammack, Musalem, Paulson, Waller and Williams.
