EM LATAM CREDIT: Colombia BanRep Headlines - Negative
(COLOM; Baa3/BBneg/BB+neg)
[MNI Macro]
"Four directors voted in favor of this decision, two for a 50 bps reduction and one for a 25 bps cut." - Bbg
"Inflation expectations derived from surveys and those from the government bond market increased. All measures were above the 3% target for the next two years." - Bbg
"The decision adopted by the majority of the Board members maintains a cautious monetary policy stance that acknowledges the identified risks to inflation's convergence to the target. Future interest rate movements will respond to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations, the dynamics of economic activity, and the balance of internal and external risks." - Bbg
"*VILLAR SEES COLOMBIAN INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED FOR LONGER" - BBG
President Petro on X (translated) regarding the BanRep rate decision and prospect for rate cuts, saying rates will only go down when a new Board member is elected:
"It will only go down when we elect the next member of the board of the Bank of the Republic"
Bloomberg notes that Petro is not due to appoint any more members before he leaves office in August, unless a board member steps down
"*COLOMBIA CENBANK DISCUSSED RISKS THAT WOULD MERIT HIKES: VILLAR" - BBG
"*COLOMBIA'S BASE SCENARIO IS KEEPING KEY RATE UNCHANGED: VILLAR"
"*COLOMBIA GOVT SEES APPROVAL OF TAX BILL AS LIKELY: BETANCOURT" - BBG
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6628/29 High Sep 24/30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6602 @ 16:31 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6554. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.
US TSYS: Taking Delayed/Suspended Data In Stride As Shutdown Gets Underway
- Treasuries look to finish higher - off first half highs after September's ISM Manufacturing Report showed a slight if uneven improvement in sectoral activity. Rates initially gapped higher after much lower than estimated private ADP employment numbers.
- The ADP release for September was weak, showing the biggest private payrolls drop (-32k) since March 2023 and before that, Jun 2020. And the prior 54k was revised down to -3k, so the first back-to-back drops since the pandemic. This was a significant miss for private payrolls versus +51k expected.
- ADP was re-benchmarked, however, resulting in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data. The trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors."
- Underlying futures climbing again after paring back from late morning highs. Projected rate cut pricing gaining vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Oct'25 at -25.3bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -46.9bp (-44.2bp), Jan'26 at -58.8bp (-53.7bp), Mar'26 at -70.0bp (-64.7bp).
- Thursday's scheduled economic data largely delayed/suspended due to the shutdown - weekly jobless/continuing claims as well as Factory New Orders will not be released
- In other news: Supreme Court rejects Pres Trump's firing of Fed Gov Cook - until at least an oral argument on the case is heard in January 2026. VP Vance expects federal layoffs to start in the next one to two days.
US DATA: Chicago Fed Eyes Solid Ex-Auto September Retail Sales
The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s preliminary estimate for September Retail sales ex-auto is 0.3% M/M.
- Coming after 0.7% M/M gains in this retail sales aggregate in August, this would be a 3-month low, but still suggest that underlying strength remains after a strong few months: it would translate into 6.1% 3M/3M annualized growth for this category, the fastest since November 2023.
- There is not yet consensus for the September retail sales report and not even certainty we will get one on Oct 16 as scheduled from the Census Bureau given the federal government shutdown, but so far the indicators for September (including Redbook same-store sales) have pointed to relatively solid dynamics in the month.
- The final CARTS estimate is published on Oct 15.
- One last major piece of the puzzle is auto sales, for which we should get data from Wards Automotive later on Wednesday.
