EM LATAM CREDIT: Colombia: April Industrial Production Drops - Negative
(COLOM; Baa2neg/BB+neg/BB+neg)
"*COLOMBIA APRIL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 4.8% Y/Y; EST. -3.2%
*COLOMBIA APRIL RETAIL SALES RISE 11.4% Y/Y; EST. +8.4%" - Bbg
Weaker than expected. A stronger economy needed to support mounting fiscal deficits.
Stronger than expected retail sales seems to suggest the Colombia consumer is still strong despite a weakened manufacturing sector.
Higher oil prices are supportive for government revenues and economic growth if they persist but geopolitical flair ups don't usually result in a longer term rise in oil prices.
The IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.4% for 2025.
COLOM 8% 2035 were last quoted T+362, almost 20bps wider in the past 2 weeks due to rising concerns about fiscal deficits as we await the medium term fiscal plan presentation later today.
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US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows
- Treasury futures are extending session lows, Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures currently trades at 109-28 (-3) - lowest level since April 14 -- breach strengthens a bearish theme and exposes a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low and a bear trigger.
- Curves steeper: 2s10s +1.431 at 44.499, 5s30s +1.358 at 82.015
- Cross asset: Stocks trading mixed w/ SPX at 5902.0, Nasdaq at 19064.0, Gold retreating to 3180.0, Bbg US$ index inching off lows at 1229.34 (-1.95) vs. 1224.24 low.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: May16 $1.1075-85(E1.1bln), $1.1200(E2.5bln), $1.1330-35(E1.0bln)
- USD/JPY: May16 Y145.00-20($1.2bln), Y146.85-00($1.4bln), Y147.75($1.1bln)
- USD/CAD: May16 C$1.3975-85($1.3bln), C$1.4000($1.1bln)
SONIA: SFIU5 96.20/96.35 Call Spread Lifted
SFIU5 96.20/96.35 call spread paper paid 3.5 on 12K.
