REFINING: Coffeyville Refinery Fire Hits Naphtha Unit

EGBs see some selling early today, although diminished liquidity heading into Christmas may be helping the moves extend.

• Some attributing the move to ECB President Lagarde remaining alert to lingering services inflation pressure. We aren’t so sure, as she also stressed increased confidence surrounding the Bank nearing its inflation target.
• German yields 2-3bp higher, curve a little steeper. 10s initially test December highs (2.322%), still nearly 20bp below their November peak.
• The hold of the Dec high in 10-Year yields helps Bunds to stabilise.
• The fact that the Bund curve is steepening also plays down the impact of Lagarde’s comments.
• Peripheral and OAT spreads to Bunds 1-2bp wider.
• 10-Year OAT/Bunds last 81bp, sticking within the multi-week range that has been in play since the lead up to the ousting of PM Barnier.
• The Elysee has said that a new government will be named later today. Franch PM Bayrou previously stated that he wanted to form one by Christmas at the latest.
• The delay (as one wasn’t named over the weekend) is probably a factor in this morning’s OAT widening, although peripherals also struggle as European equities edge lower.
• 10-Year BTP/Bunds just under 2bp wider on the day at ~117.5bp, spread set for the highest close since December 3, but remains ~50bp tighter year-to-date.
• We will detail the Tesoro’s ’25 issuance plan (released late Friday) later this morning.

MNI looks at China steel demand in 2025 -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $30.942/32.338 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 12                             
• PRICE: $29.774 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 21  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the trend condition. The metal has breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.