UKRAINE: 'Coalition Of The Willing' Meets In Paris
Leaders and senior officials from 30+ countries, deemed 'the coalition of the willing', who have indicated that they could contribute troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force or at least maintain financial and military support for Kyiv, are currently meeting in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron pledged an additional E2bln in military aid for Ukraine, including missiles, planes and air defences, ahead of the start of the meeting.
- Ahead of the meeting, there has been robust language from EU and NATO leaders regarding military backing. Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez called for the creation of “EU armed forces with troops from all 27 member countries, working under a single flag with the same objectives,” (an aim that will raise eyebrows given Spain's position as NATO's lowest spender on defence in % of GDP terms).
- While there has been much talk of a prospective 'reassurance force' to be deployed in the event of a full ceasefire, there is little indication at present that this will be feasible unless there is a significant shift in the stance of the US and Russia.
- Such a force is unlikely to come to fruition without the guarantee of US backing in the event it came under attack, something the Trump administration has not countenanced. Russia has also said that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine would be unacceptable as part of any ceasefire.
- There is no European agreement either. While the UK and France have spearheaded the issue, Germany and Italy have either voiced scepticism or outright opposed the prospect.
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STIR: OI Signals Mix Of Positioning Swings In SOFR Futures On Monday
OI data points to a mix of net short (SFRZ4, H5 & M5) and long (SFRU5) setting through the SOFR whites on Monday, before net short cover became more prominent further out the strip.
| 24-Feb-25 | 21-Feb-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,046,629 | 1,044,527 | +2,102 | Whites | +18,189 |
SFRH5 | 1,234,204 | 1,224,696 | +9,508 | Reds | -24,261 |
SFRM5 | 1,171,651 | 1,166,073 | +5,578 | Greens | -13,700 |
SFRU5 | 859,548 | 858,547 | +1,001 | Blues | -570 |
SFRZ5 | 1,001,960 | 997,323 | +4,637 |
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SFRH6 | 624,199 | 629,442 | -5,243 |
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SFRM6 | 658,230 | 674,050 | -15,820 |
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SFRU6 | 575,202 | 583,037 | -7,835 |
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SFRZ6 | 804,622 | 820,679 | -16,057 |
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SFRH7 | 445,635 | 449,943 | -4,308 |
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SFRM7 | 438,886 | 437,839 | +1,047 |
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SFRU7 | 306,010 | 300,392 | +5,618 |
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SFRZ7 | 347,648 | 350,498 | -2,850 |
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SFRH8 | 217,898 | 217,364 | +534 |
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SFRM8 | 188,505 | 190,399 | -1,894 |
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SFRU8 | 127,024 | 123,384 | +3,640 |
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 111-07 High Dec 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 110-09 Intraday high
- PRICE: 110-07+ @ 11:10 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 109-26 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 109-09 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 108-21+ Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-04 Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger
Treasury futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Feb 12. The move higher has resulted in a breach of resistance at 110-00, the Feb 7 high and a bull trigger. The break paves the way for a climb towards 110-19, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to monitor is 109-09, the 50-day EMA. A move below this average is required to highlight a potential reversal
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Resistance In EURUSD Remains Intact
- In FX, a bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. A move through this support would signal a potential reversal threat.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh short-term gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2522, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading just above its latest lows. Recent weakness has exposed the next key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 152.34, the 20-day EMA.
