CHINA: CNH Weaker Through Local Equity Close, Broadening to Wider EM
Oct-17 07:09
- No specific newsflow or headlines crossing, but noting an uptick in USD/CNH in recent trade, coinciding with the local equity close.
- Local markets are closing broadly lower (both CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lower by over 2.0%) on the global risk-off, initially triggered by the sell-off in regional US banking shares.
- Price action bucks the trend of the stronger CNY fixes this week, although the pair is still below the NY Oct15 high of 7.1331.
- Sell-off in CNH also broadening to wider EM: USD/MXN goes bid, rallying sharply to a session high and through 18.50.
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Historical bullets
GILTS: Opening calls
Sep-17 06:57
- Gilt calls, 91.45/91.50.
These DO NOT take the CPI into account, given that Sonia is a tick up, small upside risk, but should be close.
USDCAD TECHS: Strong Sell-Off Exposes Support
Sep-17 06:57
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3803 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3751 @ 07:56 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A sharp sell-off in USDCAD this week has resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYX5 112.50 Puts Lifted
Sep-17 06:54
TYX5 112.50 puts paper paid 0-21 on 4K.
