CNH: CNH Outperforms USD Bounce, July Home Prices & Activity Figures Out Today

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.470 @ 16:08 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures traded weaker into last week’s close, but remain off lower levels for now. The recent strength is again challenging resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Instead, a continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.

Overnight the fortnightly whole milk powder auction saw prices rise 1.7% versus the previous auction result, per GDT. This put prices back to $3928, from $3859 prior. It was the first rise since early May for the auction outcome. The chart below overlays the auction price result versus NZ's Citi terms of trade proxy.

• The ToT proxy hasn't shown much downside momentum, even as dairy prices moved off 2025 cycle highs. The ToT proxy is at highs back to 2022.
• Bloomberg noted: "The GDT price index change, which is a weighted average of the percentage changes in individual milk products between trading events, was an increase of 1.1%" 

Fig 1: GDT Average Whole Milk Powder Auction Price & Citi NZ ToT Proxy 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./Citi/MNI