CZECHIA: CNB's Prochazka Suggests Further Easing Could Be On Table in August

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• Alongside the broader recovery for the dollar, the risk sentiment surge has allowed the Canadian dollar to relatively outperform in recent weeks. USDCAD is just 1.7% above its lows compared to the 3.7% recovery for the USD index.
• A smooth election process and optimism surrounding the initial discussions between the Trump and Carney administrations will likely be capping the USDCAD topside, helping to keep the bearish trend condition intact the move higher considered corrective for now.
• Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend and potential is seen for a move towards 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a prior breakout point. Key resistance is seen at 1.4035, the 50-day EMA.
• Bank of America maintain their bearish USDCAD view and forecast path, but do not think conditions are ripe for a bearish volatile breakout like how the pair traded in April. They expect spot price to drift down to 1.35 over the medium-term, which is the average spot level that USDCAD has traded at from 2023 until end of Q3 2024.
• BofA would advocate expressing this moderate bearish view via 1y 1.36-strike put with a 1.30 RKO barrier (initial premium 0.33% USD, spot ref 1.3997, vol ref 5.915). The RKO put structure fades historically low USD/CAD skew and allows BofA to express the medium-term bearish USD spot view with cheapened premium.

• EUR/USD: $1.1145-50(E1.0bln), $1.1290-00(E727mln), $1.1325(E600mln), $1.1355-60(E1.1bln), $1.1370-75(E1.8bln), $1.1415-20(E1.3bln), $1.1450(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: Y143.00($1.5bln), Y146.75(E567mln), Y151.00($1.2bln)
• GBP/USD: $1.3200(Gbp599mln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8695(E580mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6545(A$811mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3875-85($1.2bln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.2500($519mln)