CZECHIA: CNB Voted Unanimously to Leave Rates Unchanged

RXZ5 129.00c, sold at 20 in 2k.

• Over -30,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors sold from 1.5-1.75 (ref 96.19) between the pit and block screen. Massive open interest in the four strikes between 340k to 604k.
• Potential roll-up of options that expire two days after the final FOMC meeting of 2025 on December 10.
• Projected rate cut pricing gaining vs late Monday levels (*): Dec'25 at -12.3bp (-10.2bp), Jan'26 at -23.1bp (-20.1bp), Mar'26 at -34.1bp (-30.9bp), Apr'26 at -41.4bp (-37.6bp).

In yet another indicator of solid retail sales continuing into Q4, the latest Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index posted a 6.1% Y/Y rise in the week ending Nov 15, a pickup from 5.9% the prior week. This brought month-to-date sales gains to 6.0% Y/Y (note, retailers target a 6.7% gain). 

• We still don't have release dates for the delayed September and October reports, but we expect them to print solidly, at least in nominal terms (which is how US retail sales are expressed).
• Between the Chicago Fed's CARTS retail sales ex-autos estimates for September and October, and Redbook, Control Group sales looks to be running at the fastest quarterly-equivalent pace since Q3 2024 as of October, with November looking good as well so far.
• Per Redbook, "Promotions for Veterans Day contributed to an increase in foot traffic and sales at the beginning of the week."
• The report notes that this is a "crucial month for retail, as it coincides with the third quarter reporting season and the holiday promotional calendar, which is already in full swing. Holiday merchandise has begun to be displayed in stores. Retailers have introduced online and in-store Pre-Black Friday deals earlier than ever to encourage shoppers to make purchases. Sales are expected to gradually strengthen as we approach Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season."