CZECHIA: CNB Holds Rates, Top Court Rejects Complaint Re: Covert Coalitions

Sep-25 07:28
  • The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% in a well-telegraphed decision, citing ongoing inflationary pressures, with inflation expected to exceed the +2% Y/Y point-target in the coming months. Governor Aleš Michl said that the central bank left all options open for future meetings, reiterating the non-committal forward guidance known from previous press conferences. He said that 'stronger koruna exchange rate is one of the reasons' for such guidance.
  • The Constitutional Court rejected a complaint accusing the SPD and Stačilo! parties of registering undeclared coalition lists. Both parties run as de facto coalitions, allocating spots on their lists to allied parties, albeit without formally declaring it. Under Czech electoral law, single-party lists face a 5% electoral threshold, while multiparty (tripartite and more) coalition lists are subject to an 11% threshold. The top court's verdict sustained the reasoning of regional courts, which noted that the law defines coalitions formally rather than substantively, and hence the distinction is ultimately a matter of self-identification. The decision was expected but a different one could have significantly disrupted preparations for the October 3-4 elections.
  • Pirate Party leader Zdeněk Hřib told iDNES.cz that his aim for the elections is to overtake the far-right SPD and claim third place, facilitating the formation of a government without ANO, Stačilo!, SPD and AUTO, and forcing Finance Minister Zbyněk Stanjura out of office.
  • ANO sources told Deník N that AUTO would be an ideal coalition partner for Czechia's largest party, but Andrej Babiš is drawing up plans of how to buy the support of the SPD, in case cooperation with Tomio Okamura's party proves inevitable.

Historical bullets

OAT: French 10yr Yield breaks above 3.50%

Aug-26 07:18
  • The French OAT is starting to drag Bund lower, The UK Gilts is also at play, as the UK returns from their Bank Holiday.
  • The French 10yr Yield has fully cleared the 3.50% level, highest since March.

Next stop, reference 121.60:

  • 3.550% = 121.39.
  • 3.631% = 120.61 (highest Yield print since Nov 2011).

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg Finace LP).

GFRN10 Index (France Govt Oats B 2025-08-26 08-14-36

EGB SYNDICATION: Austria New 7-Year RAGB: Books open

Aug-26 07:07
  • E3bln WNG of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
  • Guidance: MS+33 area
  • Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
  • Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
  • Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
  • Size: EUR 3 billion (Will not grow, excluding potential issuer retention)
  • Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
  • ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
  • Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
  • Timing: Books open, today's business

From market source

GILTS: Testing the 2.75% level on the Open

Aug-26 07:05

A big move for Gilt on the Open, some of the calls were 90.90/91.00, it was netting at 90.87, but down 50 ticks and through session lows.

The Dec is still not front Month, but expected to be Today.

Immediate support in G Z5 is at 90.31, while the next Yield levels are still at:

  • 4.800% = 89.98.
  • 4.921% = 88.93.