EM LATAM CREDIT: CMPC – New Hybrid Launch

US President Donald Trump's approval rating has recovered slightly after suffering a dip late last month that appeared to be related to the Trump administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. 

• The New York Times notes that while more than one-third of Republicans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Epstein case, "that doesn’t mean his supporters are breaking with him. His numbers have remained particularly strong with Republicans, around 90 percent of whom continue to approve of his job performance."
• Silver Bulletin notes: "As of today, 44.2 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing and 53.0 percent disapprove. So his net approval rating has fallen again (to -8.8), but it’s still much higher than it was at this point during his first term (-19.2)."
• Trump remains underwater on issues related to the economy, registering a -25% net approval on inflation, -17% net approval on trade, and -12% net approval on the economy generally.
• With Trump's reciprocal tariffs set to take effect this week, his approval rating will be closely followed for signals on how voters are responding to the new trade environment.
• Trump's negative approval rating on immigration (-4%) may be of particular concern to the White House as a successful raft of immigration policies was presumed a primary talking point for Republican lawmakers during this month's Congressional recess. 

Figure 1: Donald Trump's Net Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin 

Tsy futures running mixed. curves flatter with short end weaker (TUU5 103-29.25, -.2.75) ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNU1) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 3.671%, 22bp rich to last month's tail. Results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.

• July auction recap: Treasury futures remained weaker, little react after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNM9) tailed again: drawing 3.891% high yield vs. 3.887% WI; 2.51x bid-to-cover vs. 2.52x prior.
• Peripheral stats see indirect take-up retreated to 54.11% vs. 66.78% prior; direct bidder take-up climbed to 29.38% from 18.03% prior; primary dealer take-up 16.51% vs. 15.19% prior.

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