EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance At The Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3038/56 High Jul 18 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 1.2863/2985 20-day EMA / High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2795 @ 16:08 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.2744 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.2728 Low Aug 11
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2587 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD extended losses Thursday, printing a new multi-month low in the process. This weakness marks an extension of the current bear leg. Support at 1.2767, the Aug 1 low, has been cleared and the move lower paves the way for a continuation lower. Attention is on a clean close below 1.2744, the 200-dma and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 1.2985, the Aug 5 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 0.7166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.7102 @ 16:07 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.6965/6870 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD rallied further Thursday, extending this week’s bull cycle. The break of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for a continuation higher. The break has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb toward 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

Bonds finished stronger, near late highs on a quiet second half w/ TYU2 just over 1M well after the bell compared to 815k ahead midday, yield curves unwinding a portion of this week's CPI/PPI induced steepening.

• Muted reaction to early deflationary data: Import (-1.4%)/Export (-13.3%) prices come out weaker than expected. Tsys that were already off highs after the open continued to scale back support, albeit on light volumes, equities turning modest gains.
• Dual react: Tsy support faded after preliminary August reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan climbed to 55.1 vs. 52.5 exp (51.5 in July and all-time low of 50.0 in June for comparison).
• Meanwhile, Richmond Fed Barkin midmorning comments on CNBC deemed mixed with "more rate hikes needed to control inflation" and a "lot of time before Sep meeting, keep an eye on data" weighing. Less hawkish tones in the mix with "TIGHT LABOR MARKET DOESN'T HAVE TO CAUSE INFLATION; DEMAND DEFINITELY SOFTENING, ESP FOR LOW-INCOME CONSUMER; MUST BELIEVE BAL-SHEET SHRINKING HAS TIGHTENING EFFECT."
• Blocks contributed to yield curves paring back from wk's steepening post UofM: -11,421 TUU2 104-20.88, sell through 104-21 post-time bid at 1010:56ET vs. +3,960 UXYU2 128-31.5 buy through 128-28.5 post-time offer; -25,033 FVU2 112-09.5 sell through 112-09.75 post-time bid at 1036:45ET, 112-09.25 last -.25.
• Late curve levels:
  • 3M10Y -4.974, 26.663 (L: 25.199 / H: 33.589)
  • 2Y10Y -7.618, -41.125 (L: -41.125 / H: -32.494)
  • 2Y30Y -9.512, -14.282 (L: -14.364 / H: -5.024)
  • 5Y30Y -4.728, 13.923 (L: 13.604 / H: 18.841)
• Cross asset: Stocks trading strong after the bell, SPX eminis +66.0 (1.41%) at 4275.75; Gold +11.30 at 1801.02; Crude weaker (WTI -2.59 at 91.75).