EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Support
- RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
- RES 2: 0.8625/58 50-day EMA / High Jun 28 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8573/84 20-day EMA / High Jul 10
- PRICE: 0.8514 @ 06:24 BST Jul 12
- SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 0.8484 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022
The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8584, the Jul 10 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 12-Jun | 1500 | ---- | BOE Mann at Signum Chairman Charles Myers Webinar |
| 13-Jun | 0700 | Apr/May | Labour Market Survey |
| 13-Jun | 1500 | ---- | BOE Bailey Lords Economic Affairs Committee Hearing |
| 13-Jun | 1600 | ---- | BOE Dhingra Speech at Manchester Metropolitan University |
| 14-Jun | 0700 | May | Monthly GDP/Services/IP/Trade/Construction |
| 15-Jun | 1635 | ---- | BOE Cunliffe at Politico Global Tech Summit |
| 16-Jun | 0930 | May | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 21-Jun | 0700 | May | Inflation Report / Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Jun | 0930 | Apr | ONS House Price Index |
| 22-Jun | 1200 | ---- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 23-Jun | 0001 | Jun | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 23-Jun | 0700 | May | Retail Sales |
| 23-Jun | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI flash |
| 27-Jun | 0001 | Jun | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29-Jun | 0930 | May | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Jun | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Jun | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13-Jun | 1000 | DE | ZEW Survey |
| 14-Jun | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB Panetta at Eurogroup Meeting |
| 15-Jun | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jun | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15-Jun | 1315 | EU | ECB Rate Decisions |
| 15-Jun | 1345 | EU | Post-Meeting ECB Press Conference |
| 16-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting |
| 16-Jun | 0900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Jun | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19-Jun | 1200 | EU | ECB Lane Fireside Chat |
| 19-Jun | 1240 | EU | ECB Schnabel at Euro50 Group Conference |
| 20-Jun | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jun | 0900 | EU | Construction Production / Current Account |
EURGBP TECHS: Fresh YTD Lows
- RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
- RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
- RES 2: 0.8705 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8591/42 High Jun 9 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8446 @ 06:12 BST Jun 12
- SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 and intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
- SUP 3: 0.8519/04 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
EURGBP traded lower Friday to a new YTD low. The break of support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition. The focus is on 0.8547 - touched Friday - the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8642, the 20-day EMA.
