EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Support

Jul-12 05:28
  • RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
  • RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
  • RES 2: 0.8625/58 50-day EMA / High Jun 28 and bull trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8573/84 20-day EMA / High Jul 10
  • PRICE: 0.8514 @ 06:24 BST Jul 12
  • SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 11
  • SUP 2: 0.8484 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8584, the Jul 10 high.

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jun-12 05:23
Date UK Period Event
12-Jun 1500 ---- BOE Mann at Signum Chairman Charles Myers Webinar
13-Jun 0700 Apr/May Labour Market Survey
13-Jun 1500 ---- BOE Bailey Lords Economic Affairs Committee Hearing
13-Jun 1600 ---- BOE Dhingra Speech at Manchester Metropolitan University
14-Jun 0700 May Monthly GDP/Services/IP/Trade/Construction
15-Jun 1635 ---- BOE Cunliffe at Politico Global Tech Summit
16-Jun 0930 May Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
21-Jun 0700 May Inflation Report / Public Sector Finances
21-Jun 0930 Apr ONS House Price Index
22-Jun 1200 ---- Bank Of England Interest Rate
23-Jun 0001 Jun Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
23-Jun 0700 May Retail Sales
23-Jun 0930 Jun S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI flash
27-Jun 0001 Jun BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29-Jun 0930 May BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jun-12 05:18
Date Time Country Event
13-Jun 0700 DE HICP (f)
13-Jun 0800 ES HICP (f)
13-Jun 1000 DE ZEW Survey
14-Jun 1000 EU Industrial Production
15-Jun ---- EU ECB Panetta at Eurogroup Meeting
15-Jun 0745 FR HICP (f)
15-Jun 1000 EU Trade Balance
15-Jun 1315 EU ECB Rate Decisions
15-Jun 1345 EU Post-Meeting ECB Press Conference
16-Jun---- EU ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting
16-Jun 0900 IT Italy Final HICP
16-Jun 1000 EU HICP (f)
19-Jun 1200 EU ECB Lane Fireside Chat
19-Jun 1240 EU ECB Schnabel at Euro50 Group Conference
20-Jun 0700 DE PPI
20-Jun 0900 EU Construction Production / Current Account

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh YTD Lows

Jun-12 05:13
  • RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
  • RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
  • RES 2: 0.8705 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 0.8591/42 High Jun 9 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8446 @ 06:12 BST Jun 12
  • SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 and intraday low
  • SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
  • SUP 3: 0.8519/04 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
  • SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

EURGBP traded lower Friday to a new YTD low. The break of support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition. The focus is on 0.8547 - touched Friday - the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8642, the 20-day EMA.