EURUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Resistance
Dec-03 18:00
- RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1747 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1728 High Oct 17
- RES 1: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.1663 @ 16:33 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 1.1584 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1547 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21
- SUP 4: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger
EURUSD is trading higher and this has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this retracement point would strengthen the developing bull theme. Initial support to watch is 1.1584, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bearish.
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GDPNow Firms Further To 4.0% For Q3
Nov-03 17:53
- It has less to go on under the government shutdown but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate has been revised up marginally to 3.99% annualized for Q3 real GDP growth, a fresh high, after 3.93% on Oct 24.
- Whilst it isn’t a material departure from the 3.8-3.9% updates seen through October, it’s still solid considering today’s ISM manufacturing report surprised to the downside.
- The small upward revision from Oct 24 is led by an additional 0.04pps coming from personal consumption. Equipment investment tracking was also revised up from 8.7% to 9.0% but that’s only worth an extra 0.01pp to GDP.
- It points to robust GDP growth after the 3.8% in Q2 and -0.6% in Q1, or an average of 1.6% through 1H25 when trying to control for tariff front-running, after the 2.4% through 2024.
- Alternatively, private domestic final purchases (PDFP – a favorite of Fed Chair Powell) is seen on track for a strong ~3.2% in Q3. That would be a further recovery from the 2.4% averaged in 1H25 after the 2.9% through 2024.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Alphabet, EBAY Guidance Updated
Nov-03 17:44
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/03 $Benchmark Alphabet 8-pt jumbo*: 3Y +30, 3Y SOFR+52, +5Y +40, 7Y +50, 10Y +62, 20Y +72, 30Y +82, 50Y +107 (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).
- 11/03 $4B #Qatar $1B 3Y +15, $3B 10Y Sukuk +20
- 11/03 $2B Tenet 7NC3 5.5%a, 8NC3 6%a
- 11/03 $1B Neptune Bidco 5.5NC2
- 11/03 $600M #WEC Energy 30.5NC5.25 5.625%
- 11/03 $500M #Lincoln National 10Y +125
- 11/03 $500M Howmet Aerospace WNG 7Y +95a
- 11/03 $Benchmark Novartis Capital 7Pt**: 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +70a, 7Y +75a, 10Y +80a, 20Y +80a, 30Y +90a
- 11/03 $Benchmark Shell 5Y +80a, 5Y SOFR, +10Y +95a
- 11/03 $Benchmark UBS 8NC7 +120a, 21.5NC20.5 +115a
- 11/03 $Benchmark Peoples Republic of China 3Y, 5Y
- 11/03 $Benchmark EBAY 3Y +65, 10Y +103
- 11/03 $Benchmark Mattel investor calls
- *Prior Alphabet issuance for comparison: $5B on April 28 of this year ($750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70) a long stretch since issuing $10B on Aug 3 2020 ($1B 5Y +25, $1B 7Y +45, $2.25B 10Y +58, $1.25B 20Y +73, $2.5B 30Y +88 and $2B 40Y +108)
- **Prior Novartis $3.7B on September 16, 2024: $1B 5Y +45, $850M 7Y +57, $1.1B 10Y +67, $750M 30Y +77
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar
Nov-03 17:30
Due to the ongoing US Govt shutdown, Trade Balance, Durables & Factory Goods Orders, JOLTS job openings has been suspended. That leaves Redbook Retail Sales, Fed speak and Tsy bill auction tomorrow.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 11/04 Fed VC Bowman on bank supervision & policy, Santander conf
- 11/04 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
- 11/04 1130 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
