EURUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Resistance

• It has less to go on under the government shutdown but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate has been revised up marginally to 3.99% annualized for Q3 real GDP growth, a fresh high, after 3.93% on Oct 24.
• Whilst it isn’t a material departure from the 3.8-3.9% updates seen through October, it’s still solid considering today’s ISM manufacturing report surprised to the downside.
• The small upward revision from Oct 24 is led by an additional 0.04pps coming from personal consumption. Equipment investment tracking was also revised up from 8.7% to 9.0% but that’s only worth an extra 0.01pp to GDP.
• It points to robust GDP growth after the 3.8% in Q2 and -0.6% in Q1, or an average of 1.6% through 1H25 when trying to control for tariff front-running, after the 2.4% through 2024.
• Alternatively, private domestic final purchases (PDFP – a favorite of Fed Chair Powell) is seen on track for a strong ~3.2% in Q3. That would be a further recovery from the 2.4% averaged in 1H25 after the 2.9% through 2024.  

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/03 $Benchmark Alphabet 8-pt jumbo*: 3Y +30, 3Y SOFR+52, +5Y +40, 7Y +50, 10Y +62, 20Y +72, 30Y +82, 50Y +107 (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).
• 11/03 $4B #Qatar $1B 3Y +15, $3B 10Y Sukuk +20
• 11/03 $2B Tenet 7NC3 5.5%a, 8NC3 6%a
• 11/03 $1B Neptune Bidco 5.5NC2
• 11/03 $600M #WEC Energy 30.5NC5.25 5.625%
• 11/03 $500M #Lincoln National 10Y +125
• 11/03 $500M Howmet Aerospace WNG 7Y +95a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Novartis Capital 7Pt**: 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +70a, 7Y +75a, 10Y +80a, 20Y +80a, 30Y +90a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Shell 5Y +80a, 5Y SOFR, +10Y +95a
• 11/03 $Benchmark UBS 8NC7 +120a, 21.5NC20.5 +115a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Peoples Republic of China 3Y, 5Y 
• 11/03 $Benchmark EBAY 3Y +65, 10Y +103
• 11/03 $Benchmark Mattel investor calls
  • *Prior Alphabet issuance for comparison: $5B on April 28 of this year ($750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70) a long stretch since issuing $10B on Aug 3 2020 ($1B 5Y +25, $1B 7Y +45, $2.25B 10Y +58, $1.25B 20Y +73, $2.5B 30Y +88 and $2B 40Y +108)
  • **Prior Novartis $3.7B on September 16, 2024: $1B 5Y +45, $850M 7Y +57, $1.1B 10Y +67, $750M 30Y +77

Due to the ongoing US Govt shutdown, Trade Balance, Durables & Factory Goods Orders, JOLTS job openings has been suspended. That leaves Redbook Retail Sales, Fed speak and Tsy bill auction tomorrow.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/04 Fed VC Bowman on bank supervision & policy, Santander conf
• 11/04 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
• 11/04 1130 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI