EU REAL ESTATE: CityCon (CITCON: BBB-): 1Q25 Results + Potential Tender

• RES 4: 5270.00 High Apr 1  
• RES 3: 5153.42 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5026.21 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5001.00 High Apr 9              
• PRICE: 4836.00 @ 06:37 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 4664.00 Low Apr 10                      
• SUP 2: 4575.45 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded in an extremely volatile manner last week and rallied sharply higher from recent lows. The climb highlights the start of a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 5026.21, the 20-day EMA, and 5153.42, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. 

Germany, Finland, Greece and France are all due to hold auctions this week. There is also the potential for Austrian, Belgian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks, although the timing of these are more uncertain than usual given the recent market volatility. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E22.8bln, down from E32.6bln last  week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Tomorrow, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042).
• Also tomorrow, Finland will hold a conventional auction to sell a combined E1.5bln of the 0.125% Sep-31 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000507231) and the 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294).
• On Wednesday, Greece will hold a GGB auction. The bonds on offer and size will be announced the preceding day.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction to issue E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
• On Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction to sell a combined E10-12bln of the 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the new 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: tbc) and the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3).
• France will return later on Thursday to hold an IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln of the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.55% Mar-39 OATi (ISIN: FR001400IKW5) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees a single redemption of E16.2bln from an Italian CCTeu. Coupon payments for the week total E6.2bln of which E3.1bln are German, E1.1bln are Portuguese, E1.0bln are Italian and E1.0bln are Finnish. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E0.3bln, vs E9.1bln last week.

Germany, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E16.2bln, down from E30.8bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will sell E3bln of the new 12-month Apr 15, 2026 Bubill.
• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E7.4bln of the 9/14/27/49-week BTFs: E0.2-0.6bln of the 9-week Jun 18, 2025 BTF, E2.8-3.2bln of the new 14-week Jul 23, 2025 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 27-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF and E1.4-1.8bln of the 49-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Oct 23, 2025 bills.
• On Wednesday, Portugal will sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 11-month Mar 20, 2026 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Jul 4, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Oct 3, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Apr 10, 2026 EU-bill.