US NATGAS: CIG Pipeline FMJ ~225 mmcf/d through the weekend

• RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4415 High Apr 1   
• PRICE: 1.4313 @ 17:07 BST Apr 2
• SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26    
• SUP 2: 1.4151 Low Feb 14 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24

USDCAD traded sharply lower Tuesday. Attention is on an important short-term support at 1.4235, the Mar 26 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the bull theme and highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. 

• Treasury futures are trading weaker but off lows after the bell, main focus on this afternoon's reciprocal tariff announcement from the White House, scheduled for 1600ET. Much speculation through the day from ending tariffs on cheap (under $800) China imports to a 3-tier plan first mentioned by the WSJ on March 18.
• Treasuries rallied after this morning's higher than expected ADP private jobs gain but retreated in steps off midmorning highs as stocks staged a modest rally off lows. ADP employment growth was stronger than expected in March at 155k (cons 120k) after a marginally upward revised 84k (initial 77k) in February.
• Treasurys extended session lows after Politico headlines announce that Elon Musk will step back from "governing partner" role in the next few weeks. Several new outlets have announced over the last couple days that Musk would be stepping down from DOGE by the end of May.
• Treasuries Jun'25 10Y contract currently trades 111-17 (-8) vs. 111-09 low, technical support below at 110-26.5 (20-day EMA), compares to morning high of 112-02.5 with technical resistance above at 112-13 (1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing). Curves are mildly flatter, off early week highs: 2s10s -.127 at 28.245, 5s30s -1.002 at 58.799.
• Cross asset update: stocks bounce (SPX eminis +18.5 at 5693.00), Bbg US$ index -2.59 at 1270.69, Gold higher at 1325.93, crude firmer (WTI +.61 at 71.81).

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18 
• PRICE: 0.6300 @ 17:06 BST Apr 2 
• SUP 1: 0.6219 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD has recovered from Monday’s 0.6219 low. This affirms the view that recent weakness is likely corrective, with prices still clear of Feb 4 support at 0.6187. A move through 0.6187 is required to reinstate a bear threat. On the upside, a stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.