OIL PRODUCTS: China’s Nov Refined Oil Exports Up 8% on the Month

Initial market reaction to comments from Fed Governor (and candidate for Chair) Waller was dovish as he reiterated his support for a Dec cut, before his more cautious stance surrounding the need for easing beyond that meeting countered the move.

• A reminder that Waller noted that a flood of data will be released before the January meeting, with the need for a meeting-by-meeting approach to policy making (albeit with dovish anecdotes on the labor market attached).
• More recent trade sees a slight improvement in the Chicago Fed’s latest unemployment rate forecast (4.44%), but the October estimate was marked higher (to 4.46% from 4.36%). The revision has countered some of net hawkish reaction to Waller.
• Fed Funds now pricing ~17.5bp of easing for December, little changed vs. pre-Waller levels, while December ’26 pricing moves to ~91bp of easing vs. 92.5bp pre-Waller and ~90.5bp pre-Chicago Fed data.
• SOFR futures last little changed to -2.0, implied terminal rate pricing at ~3.02%.

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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.

Monday 24 November:

• European Union: Trade ministers from across the EU meet in Brussels to discuss the state of play regarding relations with the EU’s two largest trading partners: the US and China. Ministers will be joined during lunch by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. A post-Council press conference is expected ~15:45CET. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said before the meeting that no deal is expected on steel and other tariffs at today’s talks, which have been billed as a “political assessment” of the state of bilateral relations with the US.

The Chicago Fed's advance November release for its Labor Market Indicators (link) showed broad stabilization in the unemployment rate into November, having roughly re-benchmarked itself to the surprisingly high unemployment rate in BLS data to September. 

• Chicago Fed unemployment rate advance nowcast for Nov: 4.44% vs an upward revised 4.46% in Oct (from 4.36% in last month's full update).
• Recall that the BLS August nonfarm payrolls report saw the u/e rate surprise higher at 4.44% back in Sept after 4.32% in August, likely playing a large role in NY Fed Williams' dovish December guidance on Friday.
• This nowcast should carry more weight than usual owing to continued data limitations since the government shutdown. The next BLS u/e rate will be published for November on Dec 16 (with no back history for October), coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting.
• The full November update will be released on Dec 4.