LNG: China’s LNG Buyers Sit Out Winter Spot Market: Platts

Corrects 0853BST Gilt Bullet

The real component of the 10-year SONIA swap moved above 100bps for the first time since April 9 yesterday, currently at ~102.5bps. Prior to April 2025, this rate was last above 100bps in October 2022 (i.e. the aftermath of the Truss mini budget crisis).

• With the UK growth outlook still relatively subdued, this is indicative of a rise in term premium - a theme that is present across global core FI curves.
• The 10-year GBP ZC inflation swap has gradually drifted lower since April 2024, last at 3.16%.
• Meanwhile, nominal 10-year SONIA swap rates are just shy of 4.20%, rising alongside Gilt yields in recent sessions to the highest since late May.
• Note: Contains correct chart for breakevens, incorporating swaps

• MNI: US REDBOOK: AUG STORE SALES +5.8% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.9% WK ENDED AUG 16 V YR AGO WK

US Treasury and Gilt Rolls Views: This is a repeat, in case missed.

JPM:

• WNA: Mildly Bullish.
• USA: Mildly Bullish.
• UXY: Bearish.
• TYA: Bearish.
• FVA: Mildly Bearish.
• TUA: Neutral.

Barclays:

• WNA: Neutral.
• USA: Bullish.
• UXY: Neutral.
• TYA: Neutral.
• FVA: Bearish.
• TUA: Bearish.

Deutsche:

• USA: Bearish.
• UXY: Bearish.
• TYA: Bearish.
• FVA: Bearish.
• TUA: Bullish.

Gilt View:

• Barclays is mildly Bullish.