JET FUEL: China’s Jet Fuel Demand Seen up 8% in 2025: Oilchem

Belgium's three major trade unions will hold nationwide strikes on 12 and 13 February in protest of the new 'Arizona' coalition's governing agreement. The strikes, which are set to affect public transport, postal services, refuse collection, and eductation are also set to result in no flights being able to depart Belgium's two busiest airports on 13 Feb. This strike could have knock-on effects for talks regarding European security. 

• Previous strikes in Jan came on the back of leaked information speculating on cuts to welfare and pension reforms from the five-party 'Arizona' coalition that was in the final stages of agreeing on a plan for gov't. Having now come to power and outlined its plans, Günther Blauwens, president of the Flemish railway union ACOD Spoor, told Brussels Times that "There is even more anger now; many feel cheated."
• Defence ministers from Ukraine's allies meet in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group format (also known as the Ramstein format) tomorrow (12 Feb) at NATO's HQ in Brussels. The talks are the first in the format since US President Donald Trump took office, and for the first time will not be chaired by the US but instead by the UK. After this on Thursday 13 Feb, a NATO defence ministers' meeting takes place. A significant number of these defence ministers are planning to attend the 14-16 Feb Munich Security Conference in Bavaria. It remains to be seen whether ministers will commit to attending in person if they risk missing events later in the week. 

• Reoffer: 99.706 to yield 4.5363%
• Size: GBP13bln (higher than the GBP8.5-10.0bln we expected)
• Orderbooks in excess of GBP140bln (inc JLM interest of GBP12bln)
• Spread set at 4.25% Jul-34 gilt + 5.5bp (guidance was + 5.5/6.0bps)
• HR 106% vs 4.25% Jul-34 gilt. Spot ref 98.23
• Maturity: 7 March 2035
• ISIN: GB00BT7J0027
• Settlement: 12 February, 2025 (T+1)
• Bookrunners: Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi (B&D/DM), Goldman Sachs International Bank, HSBC and NatWest.
• Timing: TOE: 11:56GMT. FTT immediately

From market source

• Treasuries sit twist steeper on the day. The front-end is little changed ahead of Powell’s Senate Banking Committee appearance at 1000ET today whilst the longer end has steadily sold off through London hours after a Japan holiday as it’s dragged lower by EGBs digesting heavy supply.
• Cash yields are 0.5-3.5bp higher on the day, with 10Y yields at 4.527% (+3.0bps) having now climbed almost 10bps since pre-NFP levels.
• 2s10s has lifted to 24.5bps (+2bp) but remains on the low side for the ytd range.
• TYH5 sits at 109-01+ (- 05+) off lows of 109-00+ on particularly light cumulative volumes of 225k.
• It takes a step closer to support at 108-20+ (Feb 4 low) whilst the short-term trend needle points north with resistance at 110-00 (Feb 7 high).
• Data: NFIB business barometer (1100ET – already released)
• Fedspeak: Hammack (0850ET), Powell (1000ET), Williams (1530ET), Bowman (1530ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction - 91282CMN8 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)