OIL PRODUCTS: China’s CDU Capacity to Fall on Week: OilChem
CDU Capacity Utilisation rates at China’s state-owned refineries are expected to continue falling in the week to June 6, according to OilChem, as Sinopec and CNPC plan to cut daily throughput.
- Among independent refineries in China’s Shandong province, CDU capacity utilisation rates are estimated to fall further with several refineries expected to begin maintenance.
- CDU capacity utilisation rates at domestic refineries in China averaged 70.15% last week, up 0.98 percentage points on the previous seven-day period.
- China’s gasoline demand is likely to increase in the coming days as rising temperatures lift vehicle air conditioning use.
- Gasoil demand is seen as flat, with a rainy season in the southern part of China pressing on demand.
Source: OilChem
Source: OilChem
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South
- RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 95.800 - High Apr 19
- PRICE: 95.595 @ 16:01 BST May 03
- SUP 1: 95.235 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov - Dec ‘23 rally
- SUP 2: 94.965 - Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.866 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 2 price swing
A bearish cycle in Aussie 10yr futures remains in play and the latest extension reinforces current conditions. A continuation would signal scope for a move towards 95.235, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 95.800, the Apr 19 high. A break would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 96.110, the Dec 28 high.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GS Continue To Expect Two Fed Cuts This Year
- Writing on today's payrolls report, Goldman Sachs note that “Job growth remained rapid in the healthcare industry but slowed sharply across leisure and government, raising the possibility that rehiring in those two sectors has mostly run its course.”
- “The household survey was soft, with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1pp to 3.9%, driven by a 25k increase in household employment.”
- “Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 189k, though we estimate that counting immigration fully would boost this by 20k.”
- “Our Q1 wage tracker stands at +4.5% on a quarterly annualized basis and +4.3% on a year-over-year basis.”
- “We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, in July and November.”
USDCAD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3687 @ 16:21 BST May 3
- SUP 1: 1.3622 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
Despite the latest pullback in USDCAD, a bullish trend condition remains intact for now and the move lower appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. Note too, that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3622, 50-day EMA. This average has today been pierced, but remains intact as a support.
