OIL PRODUCTS: China Traffic Congestion Continue to Climb: BNEF

• Some broader lows for the EUR here, as European Yields move lower, the EUR is through session low against the CNH, USD, GBP, CAD.
• Bund is testing the just mentioned resistance, as the latest story headline "Trump Aides Draft Tariff Plans as Some Experts Warn of Economic Damage" seems to have provided that lastest move across multi assets, EUR, Bonds and Equities.

• The Australian dollar stands a little firmer on the session, primarily driven by the more constructive price action for equities and a cautious sounding RBA. Governor Bullock said the RBA’s new monetary policy board had not considered a cut this month, pointing to uncertainty that risked pulling inflation in either direction. She also downplayed the market’s increasing certainty of a May 25bp rate cut – noting the Board would evaluate labour and inflation data ahead of any decision.
• Key AUDUSD support remains untested at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Importantly, clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish technical theme for the pair. This may coincide with EURAUD testing 1.7419 (Mar 11 high), a breach of which would place EURAUD at levels not seen since the early onset of the pandemic in 2020.
• In HSBC’s view, Asian EMFX and EM equities (particularly APAC) are the key anchor for AUDUSD heading into the tariff announcements. New actions can potentially damage the regional and global trade outlook much more than the YTD measures. Markets will likely look past Australia’s limited direct trade exposure to the US. Overall, with risk aversion and yield compression happening simultaneously, HSBC are bearish the AUD against the USD and low-yielding safe havens (e.g. JPY and CHF) in the near term.
• MUFG noted the relatively hawkish comments from the RBA overnight have provided some support for the Australian dollar although it remains vulnerable to the risk of a more disruptive tariff announcement from President Trump tomorrow.

SOFR - CME/Bloomberg

• 1mth 4.31896 -0.00041
• 3mth 4.28098 -0.0069
• 6mth 4.16692 -0.02567
• 12mth 3.95989 -0.0527