NATGAS: China Plans for Natgas Heating Season: Kpler
Oct-24 13:02
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has outlined a set of measures to secure natural gas supply and maintain price stability ahead of the 2025–2026 heating season, underlining the growing importance of gas in the national energy mix, Kpler reported.
- The NEA called for stronger support for residential heating and daily use in northern China, improved coordination between the gas and electricity sectors,
- The heating season in northern China typically runs from mid-November to mid-March.
- These priorities were discussed at a meeting attended by senior representatives including CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC, and the National Pipeline Network Corporation.
- Participants noted that China’s domestic gas market remains stable, with adequate supply, slowing consumption growth and modest price declines. However, they warned that international market volatility and extreme weather events pose ongoing risks.
- Kpler data show China’s LNG imports at 47.41mn t in the first nine months of 2025, down 18% year on year.
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STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Sep-24 13:00
FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.09% (+0.00), volume: $95B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.09% (+0.00), volume: $188B
MNI: BELGIUM SEP BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -7.9
Sep-24 13:00
- MNI: BELGIUM SEP BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -7.9
GERMAN DATA: IFO / PMI Sep Services Difference Partially Survey Question Related
Sep-24 12:58
- Contrasting September trends in the services readings of the German IFO Business Climate and PMI indices poses the question of the underlying drivers of the difference. Remember that this month, the IFO services sector balance declined from 2.6 points to -3.0, while the flash services PMI improved from 49.3 to 52.5. Both releases are seasonally adjusted.
- The IFO methodology reads "companies are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months [...] The balance value of the current business situation is the difference in the percentage shares of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of expectations is the difference in the percentage shares of the responses “more favorable” and “less favorable.” The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations".
- The PMI methodology meanwhile reads "The Services Business Activity Index is [...] based on the survey question “Is the level of business activity at your company higher, the same or lower than one month ago?”
- As such, the IFO headline index will be more forward-looking as the expectations component is flowing into it, contrary to the PMI. Comparing the PMI against the current assessment component of the IFO (see chart below) yields some solid correlation. Even here, the respective question framing suggests the PMI is probably a little bit more backward looking than the IFO - that may mean the PMI is more representative than the IFO of what actually happened.
- Having said this, also the IFO services current assessment declined this month (again, as opposed to the PMI), printing 7.4 after 11.4 in August (lowest since November 2024). This may have been a one-off at least to some extent looking at the historical comparison of the series.
