ASIA STOCKS: China Markets Weaker Despite Consumer Support, Aust Mkt Up On CPI
Jan-08 04:00
Markets in North East Asia are negative, with the exception of South Korean stocks. At this stage, China and Hong Kong markets are off the most, around 1.5-1.6% weaker for the aggregate headline CSI 300 and HSI indices. The onshore briefing around the expanded consumer trade in program for appliances and motor vehicles not shifting the sentiment needle positively.
- Consumer related sub indices for the CSI 300 are weaker, while the property sub index is also softer, down 2.2% at this stage. In HK the tech sub index is down 2.2% as well. Broader tech headlines from Tuesday US trade, as Nvidia pulled back, aren't helping sentiment in this space. In Taiwan, the Taiex is off around 0.80%.
- In contrast, South Korea markets have bucked the softer trends, with the Kospi rebounding from opening weakness, last up over 1.1%. We had disappointment earning results from both Samsung and LG, but dips have been bought. All the bad news is priced in has been cited as a positive for Samsung.
- In Australia, the ASX 200 is up close to 1%. Sentiment has been supported by the Nov CPI print, which showed the trimmed mean moderated further in y/y terms, supporting local bonds and RBA rate cut prospects.
- For SEA markets, trends are mixed, Singapore stocks higher, but a mostly negative bias elsewhere.
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ASIA STOCKS: Strong flows into the Indian market Continue.
Dec-09 03:50
- India’s inflows continued on Thursday, capping off a very strong five-day period.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$175m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$158m. YTD flows remain positive at +$3.798bn. The 5-day average is -$32m, the 20-day average is -$172m and the 100-day average of -$156m.
- Taiwan: Experienced outflows of -$30m yesterday, with total inflows of +$2,616m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$16.295bn. The 5-day average is +$523m, the 20-day average of -$229m and the 100-day average of -$199m.
- India: Saw inflows of +$1,120m as of Thursday, with a total inflow of +$2,886m over the previous 5 days. YTD inflows stand at +$4.354bn. The 5-day average is +$577m, the 20-day average of +$79m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$11m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$67m. YTD flows remain positive at +$1.534b. The 5-day average is +$13m, the 20-day average is -$42m the 100-day average of +$17m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$47m as of Wednesday, totaling -$77m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.864bn. The 5-day average is -$15m, the 20-day average of -$15m the 100-day average of -$5m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$33m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$171m. YTD flows stand at -$476m. The 5-day average is -$34m, the 20-day average of -$38m the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$7m yesterday, with net outflows of -$33m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$338m. The 5-day average is -$7m, the 20-day average of -$12m the 100-day average of +$2m.
BONDS: NZGBS: Bull-Flattener To Start The Week
Dec-09 03:49
NZGBs closed flat to 4bps richer, with a flatter 2/10 curve, after a data-light local session. The next key release is Mfg Activity Volume on Wednesday. Across the ditch, the RBA will deliver its policy decision tomorrow.
- New Zealand government is pushing ahead with moves to increase banking competition by boosting Kiwibank and taking steps to ensure the Reserve Bank places greater importance on competition in the sector, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. (per BBG)
- “New Zealand is often seen as the little brother against the Aussies. We’re trying to give that little brother a little bit more muscle to get a fairer deal for Kiwis”: Willis
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest post-payrolls gains. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve entered its self-imposed blackout at midnight Friday through December 19.
- Swap rates closed 2-4bps lower.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps softer across meetings. 44bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 105bps by November 2025.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 0.25% May-28 bond, NZ$225mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$25mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
OIL: Crude Moderately Higher Following Syrian Turmoil
Dec-09 03:41
Oil prices are moderately higher during APAC trading today after falling sharply on Friday. Brent is up 0.3% to $71.34/bbl after a high of $71.49, and WTI is 0.5% higher at $67.50 after rising to $67.59. The USD index is up around 0.1%.
- The outlook for both Brent and WTI is bearish. Initial support is at $69.95 and $66.32 respectively. Bear triggers are at $67.89 and $63.90.
- OPEC pushed out the planned start of its output normalisation to April at its meeting last week. Now Saudi Arabia has cut prices for shipments to Asia with the premium falling to its lowest in four years, more than expected, according to Bloomberg. It also reduced prices for Europe but not to North America. Expected excess supply in 2025 continues to weigh on prices.
- Geopolitics in the Middle East remain in focus with the Iranian- and Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria being toppled by Turkish-supported rebel groups on the weekend. The spread of instability in the region to major oil-producer Iran remains the market’s key concern. Today’s restrained rise in oil prices implies that crude is not yet too worried about the developments.
- Later November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Ramsden speak. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period.
