LNG: China LNG Demand Limited by Tariifs, Weak Demand and High Prices: BNE
May-15 11:25
China’s LNG demand may only see a limited uptick in 2025 due to import tariffs, a faltering domestic economy, and elevated LNG prices, according to BNEF.
- The LNG import forecast for 2025 has been revised up 1.1m tons to 68m tons relative to an April 11 forecast. The forecast is still 8.2m tons, or 11% lower year on year.
- Downward pressures have outweighed relief from a temporary reduction in the US-China trade tariffs. The lower US tariffs on China are still higher than an average of 8% on other countries and could weigh on trade in the medium term.
- LNG demand growth depends on whether domestic consumption is boosted by China’s stimulus plan and if spot prices fall to a more acceptable level, BNEF said.
- Interest from small LNG buyers in China is for cargoes below $10.5/mmbtu, PipeChina said.
- China’s LNG imports 30-day moving average was 163k tons/day on May 13 and about 16% below the seasonal five-year average, Bloomberg ship-tracking shows.
Source: BNEF
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