OIL: China Imports of Iranian crude Fall but Dramatic decline Unlikely: Kpler

OI data points to a mix of net long cover (TU), short setting (FV), short cover (TY) and long setting (UXY, US & WN) during yesterday’s twist flattening of the curve, with the long setting across UXY-WN providing the most meaningful adjustment.

• MNI speaks to Chinese advisors and former officials about its trade policy at a time of U.S. tariffs -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged to a little lower on the day for late 2025 meetings (-2bp for Dec) with some contained risk off moves following the Washington Post reporting around White House aides drafting a proposal for tariffs of around 20%.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 5bp May, 20.5bp Jun, 37.5bp Jul, 54.5bp Sep and 78bp Dec.
• The 78bp of cuts priced for 2025 is off yesterday’s 81bp although still towards the dovish end of recent ranges.
• US data should receive attention today, especially March ISM mfg and February JOLTS at 1000ET, along of course with further headline watch ahead of Apr 2 tariff announcements.
• Scheduled Fedspeak looks unlikely to move the needle, with Richmond Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) speaking on policy and the economic outlook at 0900ET after yesterday’s CNBC appearance. His base case is that it will take a while for clarity around tariffs, and he’s nervous about inflation and employment. He’s in no hurry to cut rates and doesn’t see now being a time for forward guidance.
• NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) yesterday told Yahoo Finance that he wants to watch data to see the impact of tariffs on prices. The Fed needs to keep an open mind on how long tariff impacts will last with there definitely a risk of higher inflation, whilst pledging to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored. His baseline view is that inflation will be relatively stable but risks to growth and inflation are both very important.