OIL: China Import Quotas to Sustain Sanctioned Crude Imports: Vortexa

Dec-05 11:20

China’s larger allocation of crude imports in the final batch of quotas this year reflects the enforcement of the fuel oil consumption tax and improved refining margins in Q4, Vortexa said.

  • China issued its final batch of crude import quotas last week, totalling more than 7.5mt and notably higher than the 6mt released in the same batch last year,
  • The fuel oil consumption tax reduced willingness of independent refiners to run non-crude feedstocks, accelerating their use of existing crude quotas.
  • More teapots applied for extra quotas as margins improved amid deeper discounts on sanctioned crude grades due to sanctions.
  • The new quotas are expected to sustain but not raise China’s sanctioned crude seaborne imports and will be partly used to draw down inventories. Robust imports this year have partly accumulated in onshore - including bonded – storage.
  • Fuel oil imports are likely to decline through December as crude becomes more accessible again.
Screenshot 2025-12-05 111908

Source: Vortexa

Historical bullets

EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Ladder vs Call

Nov-05 11:18

RXZ5 129/128.5/128p ladder vs 131c, bought the ladder for 5 in 3k.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERH6 Call Seller

Nov-05 11:17

ERH6 98.1875 call, sold for 2 in 8k

STIR: Fed Rates Steady Before Important Data Updates

Nov-05 11:15
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s modest decline in risk-off moves ahead of a more notable docket today with the October ADP and ISM Services reports plus any spillover to front rates from Treasury’s QRA at 0830ET.
  • Dec FOMC pricing still holds nearly all of the hawkish adjustment seen after Powell noted a strongly divided committee around December cut prospects at Wednesday’s press conference.
  • Cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 17bp Dec, 26bp Jan, 35bp Mar, 41.5bp Apr and 56bp Jun.
  • SOFR futures are mostly 2 ticks higher on the day looking out to end-2027, with the terminal implied yield edging a little lower to 3.075% (H7) after Monday’s 3.115% highest close since August.
  • The SOFR implied terminal yield
  • Today sees a pause in scheduled Fedspeak before a heavy schedule tomorrow with Barr, Hammack, Musalem, Paulson, Waller and Williams.
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