US-China trade deal optimism ahead of Trump-Xi meeting this week sees Fed Funds implied rates 1-2bp higher since Friday’s close, Wednesday’s decision aside where the Fed is still fully priced to cut 25bps.
It’s seen these nearer term meetings reverse a large part of the dovish reaction to Friday’s CPI miss – see table.
Cumulative cuts from 4.11% effective: 25bp for Wed, 49.5bp Dec, 62.5bp Jan, 74bp Mar, 80.5bp Apr and 93bp Jun
Look beyond mid-2026 and SOFR futures are now a little lower than pre-CPI levels, albeit only just with a modest 1.5-2.5 tick decline since Friday’s close looking out to end-2027 contracts.
The terminal implied yield is currently at 2.995% (SFRZ6) having last closed higher on Oct 9 prior to the initial flare-up in US-China trade tensions.