US-CHINA: China Has Full Confidence In Ability To Handle Trade Conflict

May-09 03:28

Headlines have crossed on China-US trade issues via Reuters from China's Vice Foreign Minister, Hua Chunyin. 

  •  ""We do not want any kind of war with any country. But we have to face up to the reality. As you can see, people have full confidence in our capability to overcome all the difficulties." (via Rtrs).
  • It was added: ""What the United States is doing cannot be sustained," Hua said. "Ordinary people in the U.S. already feel suffering from the tariff war."
  • The U.S. administration will come back to "normal", she said." (via Rtrs).  
  • These remarks come ahead of this week's meeting in Switzerland between US and China officials.
  • A short while ago, April trade data crossed, showing China exports to the US were down 21% y/y (based off a BBG calculation). China's trade surplus with the US fell to $20.46bn, from $27.58bn in March. 

Historical bullets

ASIA STOCKS: Huge Outflows Across Major Markets. 

Apr-09 03:27

With further tariff headlines spooking markets, data shows that the ongoing outflows from Asia equities continue. 

  • South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$483m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$4,987m. 2025 to date flows are -$10,565, m. The 5-day average is -$997m, the 20-day average is -$260m and the 100-day average of -$154m.
  • Taiwan: Had outflows of -$887m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$411m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$17,843. The 5-day average is -$82m, the 20-day average of -$397m and the 100-day average of -$243m.
  • India: Had outflows of -$1,041m as of 7th, with total outflows of -$2,617m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$15,414m.  The 5-day average is -$523m, the 20-day average of -$24m and the 100-day average of -$151m.
  • Indonesia: Had outflows of -$228m as yesterday, with total inflows of -$32m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,058m.  The 5-day average is -$6m, the 20-day average -$36m and the 100-day average -$35m
  • Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$71m yesterday, totaling -$230m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,402m. The 5-day average is -$46m, the 20-day average of -$32m the 100-day average of -$19m.
  • Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$89m as of yesterday, totaling -$422m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,664m. The 5-day average is -$84m, the 20-day average of -$67m the 100-day average of -$39m.
  • Philippines: Saw outflows of -$7m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$83m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$292m. The 5-day average is -$17m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.
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CHINA: Bond Futures Rally as Equities Decline Again. 

Apr-09 03:11
  • As equities head lower again today, bond futures are up across all maturities.
  • The 10YR bond future is up +.13 at 109.07 as it trades further away from the nearest moving average; the merged 20-day and 50-day EMA of 108.18.
  • The 2YR bond future is up+0.03 at 102.63, as it breaks back above all major moving averages with today’s move.  Its nearest moving average is the 100-day EMA at 102.60.
  • China’s 10YR government bond  yield is declining further, down -2bps at 1.64%

FOREX: FX Option Expiry Report

Apr-09 02:52
  • AUD/USD - 650m at 0.5975, 280m between 0.6050/55 Exp 09 April, 270m 0.5985, 120m 0.6000 Exp 10 April
  • USD/JPY - 900m between 143.00 - 144.00, 400m at 145.00, 400m at 146.00, 1.3b 146.50 - 147.00 Exp 09 April, 
  • NZD/USD - 300m at 0.5475, 474m at 0.5605, Exp 10 April

USD/JPY 1 week expiry report

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg