OIL: China Crude Oil Imports Rebound in March
China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months to the highest since August at 51.41m tons, and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, General Administration of Customs data showed.
- Imports equivalent to 12.1mb/d rose from 10.38mb/d in Jan.-Feb. and 11.55mb/d in March 2024.
- Q1 2025 crude oil imports fell 1.5% on the year to 135.25m tons, or 10.97mb/d.
- Arrivals of Iranian oil surged as independent refiners boosted stocks in anticipation of tighter supply due to risk of further U.S. sanctions. Record Iranian crude arrivals into the Shandong region boosted seaborne imports up to the highest since October 2023 at 10.6mb/d in March, Vortexa said.
- China’ s refined oil product exports were down to 5.24m tons from 6.02m tons in March 2024 with Q1 exports down 16% on the year to 12.46m tons, customs data showed.
- Oil product imports were 3.05m tons in March with Q1 down 22.4% on the year at 9.36m tons.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
