OIL: China Crude Demand and Refinery Runs Supported in Q1: OIES
Jan-29 11:46
As pressure mounts on suppliers of sanctioned crudes, China's independent refiners are drawing down ...
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EGB FUNDING UPDATE: France 2026 Funding Plan
Dec-30 11:42
- MT/LT net issuance will be E310bln, in line with the provisional target of 14 October. "The funding requirement may be adjusted, if necessary, depending on the 2026 Budget Act." This follows E300bln net in 2025, E285bln in 2024, E270bln in 2023 and E260bln in 2022.
- The AFT has also noted that in 2025 it bought back E43.5bln of debt maturing in 2026 and E4.1bln maturing in 2027. Gross issuance in 2025 was E347.7bln (E324.4bln OATs and E23.3bln linkers).
- Linkers will account for "approximately" 10% of MT/LT issuance.
- Auction schedules will remain as in 2025.
- New issues:
- One new 3-year OAT (same as 2025)
- One new 5/6-year OAT (same as 2025)
- One new 10-year OAT via auction (down from two new in 2025).
- "Prospect of" 10-year OATei via auction
- "Prospect of" new 20-year OAT via syndication "depending on market conditions"
- "Prospect of" new 30-year OAT via syndication "depending on market conditions."
- "Prospect of" a syndicated launch of a new OAT with a shorter maturity that existing nominal green OATs.
- Unlike normal December updates there is no confirmed total financing requirement (just the MT/LT issuance target for now) with no update on BTF issuance.
US TSYS: Focus on Dec FOMC Minutes After Not-So-Hawkish 25bp Cut
Dec-30 11:42
- Treasuries are running steady to mildly mixed at the moment, inside narrow overnight ranges on light volumes (TYH6 steady at 112-23, volume under 140k) as markets await flurry of data this morning, culminating with the FOMC minutes for the Dec meeting (1400ET) where they delivered a not-so-hawkish 25bp cut but with signs of a still clearly divided committee.
- Powell on the perceived differences in the risks to the outlook on the FOMC: “"The risk is that tariff inflation just turns out to be more and more persistent .. I think the other possibility is, less likely, and that is just that the labor market gets tight, or the economy gets tight. All across the Committee, people see the picture pretty similarly, but see the risks quite differently. And some people do see the inflation risk. And I wouldn't dismiss that case."
- Chicago Fed Labor Indicators kicks data off at 0830ET, Redbook Retail Sales at 0855ET, FHFA House Price Index & S&P Cotality CS at 0900ET, MNI Chicago PMI at 0945ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity wraps things up at 1030ET. US Treasury auction at 1130ET with $75B 6W bills.
- Today's MNI Chicago PMI offers an alternative look at manufacturing activity ahead of the ISM manufacturing survey the following week and should be watched after sliding 7.5 points to 36.3 in November with a particularly large drop in new orders.
- Friday's final manufacturing PMI rounds the week off after the flash release saw it at 51.8 after 52.2 for a five-month low. From the press release: “Production growth dipped to a three-month low as new orders fell for the first time since December 2024.”
- Reminder, markets close early tomorrow for the New Years holiday, Thursday closed, full session resumes Friday.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Dec FOMC Minutes, Home Data, MNI Chicago PMI
Dec-30 11:21
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/30 0830 Chicago Fed Labor Indicators
- 12/30 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
- 12/30 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.0%, 0.1%)
- 12/30 0900 S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM (0.13%, 0.10%),YoY (1.36%, 1.10%)
- 12/30 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (36.3, 40.0)
- 12/30 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-2.3, -4.6)
- 12/30 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 12/30 1400 FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
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