REFINING: China CDU Capacity Utilizations High
Aug-17 08:58
The CDU capacity utilizations of China's refineries hit a two-year high in early August with an average of 73.65% according to OilChem.
- State-owned refineries reacted the most actively to the demand growth, with their CDU capacity utilization rates which exceeded 80%, a three-year high.
- Independent refinery recovery was milder – with rates below Autumn 2022 levels.
- OilChem believes that the CDU capacity utilization rates of domestic refineries will remain between 73-74% over August-October.
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OPTIONS: Fade Off Highs Brings EUR/USD Within Range of Day's More Sizeable Strikes
Jul-18 08:48
Reversal off highs for EUR/USD puts spot within range of a larger $1.1225 option strike, although further weakness will bring the most sizeable strikes of the day (and the week) into play at $1.1100-10 (E4.5bln):
- EUR/USD: $1.1100-10(E4.5bln)$1.1225(E521mln)
- USD/JPY: Y139.50-70($543mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3010(Gbp853mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6800-15(A$1.1bln)$0.6850(A$957mln)$0.6875-95(A$1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3240($526mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.1500($1.4bln)
STIR: Fading Odds Of ECB Hike Post-July
Jul-18 08:37
Cumulative ECB hike pricing through the September meeting has been tightly rangebound between 38-42bp since June 23, seemingly in search for a pre-July meeting catalyst to tip the balance toward just one more 25bp hike, or cement a second.
- That catalyst may have arrived. The Knot comments this morning understandably haven't moved July pricing much (steady at 23.2bp), but with Sept pricing falling 2.5bp on the day, there is now only 15.5bp of hikes priced in Sept compared to July (at 38.7bp) - the least for Sept relative to July seen since mid-June.
- A further 25bp hike in Sept is very much on the fence again, in other words.
- Cumulative pricing for November points to just 43.5bp of further hikes over the next 3 meetings - a close here would be the lowest of the month.
- And overall, the 5.5bp terminal price drop would be the biggest since Jun 23, to the lowest since mid-June at 3.95% (45bp of further hikes).
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Fly Buying Continues
Jul-18 08:36
ERU3 96.125/96.25/96.375 call fly bought for 2.5 in 4k
- Earlier: ERM4 97.00/98.00/99.00 call fly paper bought for 7.25 in 6K (also bought yest for 7 in 4k)
