TARIFFS: China Announces 55% Additional Tariff On Beef Imports, Including US

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4236.7 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 1 
• SUP 1: $3991.7 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. Note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of the corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3991.7. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.

• As expected, the weekend's fiscal headlines reacted to the aftermath of the Budget. The biggest stories were surrounding whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves mis-led the public and financial markets by misrepresenting how much worse the OBR forecasts had made the headroom and how the income tax plans had been changed by updated OBR forecasts that weren't so good.
• Indeed, she has since been reported to the FCA by Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride of the Conservatives for "possible market abuse". She has also been reported by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to Sir Magnus Laurie, the PM's Independent Adviser on Ministers' Interests, regarding a potential breach of the ministerial code.
• We noted in the run up to the Budget, the stories regarding an improvement in the OBR forecasts leading to the income tax plans being dropped did not stack up with "pre-measures" (i.e. pre-policy) forecasts that would have been finalised in late October. This timeline has since been confirmed by the OBR.
• From a political point of view, this will be challenging for Reeves. The main news coverage is more on this issue and the delayed tax rises to fund welfare than covering the cuts to energy bills and freezing rail fares. 

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.46 @ 07:07 GMT Dec 1 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The move down in Brent futures since Nov 11, highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and bear trigger at $59.93, Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note, it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle is in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows, a move above $65.25, the Oct 24 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.