EM LATAM CREDIT: Chile's Colbun S.A. (COLBUN; Baa2 /BBB /BBB+) Investment Plan

• Fed Funds implied rates hold the majority of their latest climb after the beat for the flash services PMI (54.3 vs cons 51.0 after 52.7).
• It wasn’t an out and out strong report though, as manufacturing surprised lower with a return to a sub-50 reading (49.8 vs cons 51.7 after 52.7). Input cost inflation also accelerated sharply to a near two-year high, especially in manufacturing, but competition limited the pass-through to selling prices.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 4bp May, 18.5bp Jun, 30p Jul, and 63.5bp Dec (vs 68bp as US desks filtered in today and 71bp Friday close).
• Ahead, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) on BBG TV at 1345ET and Gov. Barr (permanent voter) on small business lending at 1510ET (text + Q&A) are set to build on what’s been limited post-FOMC Fedspeak.
• Released on the morning of last week’s FOMC decision, the Atlanta Fed’s BIE showed the highest year-ahead inflation expectations since Nov 2023 at 2.5% (+0.2pp from Feb, +0.5pp from the 2.0% low late last year). Bostic had previously stated his core view that the Fed would cut 50bp this year - in line with the median - but in February he also cited disinflationary progress in the BIE as a reason for optimism: "Taken as a whole, recent inflation data have supplied evidence for both optimism and   pessimism. On the positive side, longer-term inflation expectations, typically a guide to future inflation, are mostly at healthy levels. To cite one gauge, the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey from December found that, for the first time in four years, respondents on average expect unit costs will rise just 2 percent over the next 12 months. That is in line with where that measure hovered during the low-inflation years before the pandemic."
• We’ll watch to see if Bostic, who usually is quite forthcoming with his dot plot estimates, gives further colour here after a hawkish tilt to the distribution of the dot plot even if medians were unchanged.
• Barr will also be watched for greater commentary around monetary policy matters, having stepped down as Vice Chair for Supervision on Feb 28. 

• EUR/USD: Mar26 $1.0920-25(E1.3bln); Mar27 $1.0800(E1.9bln), $1.0820-25(E1.3bln), $1.0850-65(E1.8bln); Mar28 $1.0800(E1.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Mar28 Y151.00($1.0bln)
• USD/CAD: Mar28 C$1.4145-50($1.2bln)

US President Donald Trump has told reporters during a Cabinet meeting at the White House that an agreement with Ukraine on rare earths will be signed "shortly", per Reuters.

• Trump said: "We made a deal on rare earths... agreement on rare earths to be signed shortly... We will sign soon."
• Bloomberg notes on Ukrainian rare earths: "While Ukraine has reported a series of deposits, little is known about their potential. Even the former head of Ukraine’s geological survey said there had been no modern assessment of its resources..."
• Trump added, referring to ongoing ceasefire negotiations taking place between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia in Saudi Arabia: "Talking about territory now... talking about power plant ownership."
• The US-mediated negotiations in Riyadh are on their second day. US officials are currently engaged in talks with Russian counterparts, following a corresponding session with a Ukrainian delegation yesterday. The primary focus of this week's talks is formalising an energy infrastructure ceasefire agreed last week and establishing a framework for a maritime truce in the Black Sea.
• The New York Times reports: "Serhii Leshchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office, said that the delegation from Kyiv would hold additional discussions with U.S. officials on Monday, after the Moscow-Washington talks. But he cautioned against expecting an imminent agreement, telling Ukrainian news media that “negotiations are usually not concluded in a single day; they sometimes take months.”"