FED: Chicago's Goolsbee Implies Leaning Against A December Cut

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4027 @ 15:46 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 1.3972/3895 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3818 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3895, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3972. 

• Treasuries holding narrow, higher range since gaining early Tuesday - apparently sensitive to a couple social media posts by Pres Trump while stocks dipped too after he posted retribution on Hamas if they continue "to act badly, in violation of their agreement with us."
• Second half risk-off coincided with Pres Trump expecting "$20T in US until year end", while Trump anticipates having "a good deal with Xi"  the meeting in S Korea at end of the month may NOT happen.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +5.5 at 113-24.5 vs 113-27.5 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance. Firm support lies at 113-01+, the 20-day EMA.
• Projected rate cut pricing steady to mildly mixed vs. late Monday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.2bp (-24.7bp), Dec'25 at -49.2bp (-50bp), Jan'26 at -64.2bp (-63.7bp), Mar'26 at -78.2bp (-77bp).
• Stocks remain mixed late Tuesday, the DJIA outperforming after managing to mark a new record high of 47,125.66 in the first half. Reporting earnings after the close: Netflix, Capital One Financial, Mattel, Western Alliance Bancorp (in the hot seat last week after announcing bad loan losses), Omnicom, EQY and Texas Instruments.
• Precious metals sold off sharply on Tuesday, with spot gold currently down by 5.6% at $4,113/oz and silver down by 7.7% at $48.4/oz, albeit off session lows. Platinum and palladium have also fallen by 5-6%.